MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2008 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | |||||||||||
| Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
| Tested Years | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Closed Higher | 15 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 21 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| Exceeded High | 10 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Scenario Percentage | 67% | 67% | 73% | 81% | 62% | 75% | 88% | 87% | 62% | 57% | 58% |
| Avg Max Increase | 6.66% | 5.65% | 13.24% | 12.30% | 8.97% | 7.47% | 11.97% | 12.11% | 5.40% | 3.50% | 5.13% |
| Max Increase | 26.63% | 13.22% | 41.74% | 36.12% | 22.65% | 14.71% | 102.90% | 60.45% | 9.38% | 6.98% | 12.44% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 19 |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.12% | -0.88% | -1.70% | -0.67% | -1.41% | -1.59% | -2.02% | -1.40% | -2.27% | -1.03% | -0.84% |
| Max Decline | -4.91% | -4.21% | -4.29% | -3.49% | -4.67% | -6.01% | -7.89% | -6.14% | -7.12% | -1.78% | -1.85% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 5 |
| 2007 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
