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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
| Closed Higher |
15 |
9 |
14 |
16 |
21 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
| Exceeded High |
10 |
6 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
8 |
13 |
13 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
67% |
67% |
79% |
81% |
62% |
73% |
87% |
87% |
58% |
69% |
58% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.66% |
5.65% |
13.24% |
12.30% |
8.92% |
7.54% |
12.87% |
11.92% |
5.03% |
3.57% |
5.13% |
| Max Increase |
26.63% |
13.22% |
41.74% |
36.12% |
22.65% |
14.71% |
102.90% |
60.45% |
9.38% |
6.98% |
12.44% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
14 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
15 |
19 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.12% |
-0.88% |
-1.70% |
-0.62% |
-1.41% |
-1.82% |
-1.56% |
-1.35% |
-2.30% |
-1.22% |
-0.82% |
| Max Decline |
-4.91% |
-4.21% |
-4.29% |
-3.49% |
-4.67% |
-6.01% |
-5.47% |
-6.14% |
-7.12% |
-2.83% |
-1.85% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
14 |
6 |
3 |
10 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
2 |
6 |
| 2006 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
| Closed Lower |
16 |
22 |
17 |
15 |
10 |
20 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
| Penetrated Low |
14 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
16 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
88% |
55% |
76% |
67% |
60% |
80% |
81% |
88% |
80% |
89% |
80% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.10% |
6.33% |
4.28% |
6.96% |
4.79% |
5.57% |
7.27% |
7.37% |
5.27% |
6.58% |
12.75% |
| Max Decline |
19.63% |
21.13% |
13.17% |
20.91% |
8.36% |
14.95% |
24.92% |
21.29% |
20.24% |
30.36% |
64.31% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
14 |
16 |
15 |
22 |
21 |
12 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.74% |
-1.12% |
-0.81% |
-0.45% |
-1.18% |
-2.18% |
-1.58% |
-0.44% |
-2.18% |
-1.43% |
-1.50% |
| Max Increase |
-4.67% |
-3.59% |
-5.00% |
-5.35% |
-2.41% |
-7.69% |
-5.91% |
-2.10% |
-12.86% |
-5.45% |
-12.06% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
6 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
15 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
-37 |
| 2006 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
| High |
444.6 |
455.0 |
446.5 |
458.1 |
484.0 |
490.0 |
508.5 |
548.0 |
577.3 |
579.5 |
587.4 |
| Low |
429.9 |
427.5 |
430.0 |
441.0 |
448.6 |
470.0 |
463.5 |
497.0 |
527.0 |
539.0 |
534.5 |
| Close/Last |
429.9 |
448.9 |
442.2 |
444.4 |
479.5 |
474.6 |
503.0 |
523.4 |
575.5 |
563.9 |
581.8 |
|
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