MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 30
Closed Higher 14 8 14 14 19 10 13 14 11 12 11
Exceeded High 9 5 11 11 11 7 11 12 6 8 6
Scenario Percentage 64% 63% 79% 79% 58% 70% 85% 86% 55% 67% 55%
Avg Max Increase 7.02% 6.37% 13.24% 13.15% 9.23% 7.71% 13.76% 12.02% 5.52% 3.85% 5.09%
Max Increase 26.63% 13.22% 41.74% 36.12% 22.65% 14.71% 102.90% 60.45% 9.38% 6.98% 14.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 16 17 20 14 16 14 15 9 15 20
Avg Max Decline -0.97% -0.22% -1.70% -0.50% -1.15% -1.72% -1.65% -1.52% -1.50% -1.16% -0.98%
Max Decline -4.91% -2.21% -4.29% -2.23% -4.67% -6.01% -5.47% -6.14% -4.48% -2.83% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 14 6 3 8 3 7 5 4 2 6
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes
Action No   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 30
Closed Lower 15 21 15 15 10 19 16 15 19 18 19
Penetrated Low 13 12 13 10 6 15 13 13 15 16 16
Scenario Percentage 87% 57% 87% 67% 60% 79% 81% 87% 79% 89% 84%
Avg Max Decline 6.53% 6.33% 4.28% 6.96% 4.79% 5.79% 7.27% 7.44% 5.42% 6.66% 11.32%
Max Decline 19.63% 21.13% 13.17% 20.91% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 64.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 16 15 22 21 13 15 17 15 12 13
Avg Max Increase -1.87% -1.12% -0.81% -0.45% -1.18% -2.34% -1.58% -0.52% -2.32% -1.44% -1.65%
Max Increase -4.67% -3.59% -5.00% -5.35% -2.41% -7.69% -5.91% -2.10% -12.86% -5.45% -12.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 8 7 11 15 10 9 7 10 9 -38
2004 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes     Yes Yes  
Action   Yes       No     Yes Yes  
High 376.7 371.7 368.4 379.2 396.0 393.3 401.5 419.7 429.5 418.0 428.0
Low 342.5 346.1 344.0 349.4 373.0 369.5 378.8 399.0 397.5 391.0 388.2
Close/Last 368.0 348.6 357.3 378.3 387.6 386.3 398.9 417.2 402.9 396.8 427.3