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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of May 16, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 29
Closed Higher 13 8 13 13 18 10 12 13 11 12 10
Exceeded High 9 5 10 10 10 7 10 11 6 8 5
Scenario Percentage 69% 63% 77% 77% 56% 70% 83% 85% 55% 67% 50%
Avg Max Increase 7.02% 6.37% 13.49% 14.00% 9.80% 7.71% 14.37% 12.84% 5.52% 3.85% 5.89%
Max Increase 26.63% 13.22% 41.74% 36.12% 22.65% 14.71% 102.90% 60.45% 9.38% 6.98% 14.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 16 16 20 12 16 15 16 9 15 24
Avg Max Decline -0.97% -0.22% -1.65% -0.41% -0.80% -1.72% -1.82% -1.70% -1.50% -1.16% -1.04%
Max Decline -4.91% -2.21% -4.29% -2.23% -2.99% -6.01% -5.47% -6.14% -4.48% -2.83% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 14 7 2 7 3 8 6 4 2 7
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes    
Action Yes     Yes No     Yes Yes    
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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 29
Closed Lower 15 20 15 15 10 18 16 15 18 17 19
Penetrated Low 13 11 13 10 6 15 13 13 14 15 16
Scenario Percentage 87% 55% 87% 67% 60% 83% 81% 87% 78% 88% 84%
Avg Max Decline 6.53% 6.79% 4.28% 6.96% 4.79% 5.79% 7.27% 7.44% 5.55% 6.96% 11.32%
Max Decline 19.63% 21.13% 13.17% 20.91% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 64.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 16 15 22 21 13 15 17 15 13 13
Avg Max Increase -1.87% -1.07% -0.81% -0.45% -1.18% -2.34% -1.58% -0.52% -2.22% -1.42% -1.65%
Max Increase -4.67% -3.59% -5.00% -5.35% -2.41% -7.69% -5.91% -2.10% -12.86% -5.45% -12.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 9 7 11 15 10 9 7 9 9 -38
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes     No Yes     Yes Yes
High 332.5 332.9 327.6 320.0 331.0 326.7 327.0 352.5 374.0 384.5 358.7
Low 312.5 317.5 303.0 302.0 315.3 312.0 318.5 317.3 344.2 343.0 325.8
Close/Last 331.6 317.5 306.6 315.2 326.7 319.9 318.6 349.0 369.1 350.3 335.9