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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Sep 17, 2001 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| Closed Higher |
11 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
16 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
| Exceeded High |
8 |
4 |
10 |
8 |
10 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
| Scenario Percentage |
73% |
57% |
77% |
73% |
63% |
70% |
83% |
82% |
44% |
64% |
44% |
| Avg Max Increase |
7.85% |
7.05% |
13.49% |
16.00% |
9.80% |
7.71% |
14.37% |
13.46% |
5.06% |
3.66% |
5.57% |
| Max Increase |
26.63% |
13.22% |
41.74% |
36.12% |
22.65% |
14.71% |
102.90% |
60.45% |
9.38% |
6.98% |
12.44% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
15 |
16 |
16 |
19 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
11 |
14 |
22 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.10% |
0.28% |
-1.65% |
-0.38% |
-0.80% |
-1.72% |
-1.82% |
-1.86% |
-2.31% |
-0.92% |
-0.88% |
| Max Decline |
-4.91% |
-1.62% |
-4.29% |
-2.23% |
-2.99% |
-6.01% |
-5.47% |
-6.14% |
-4.48% |
-1.52% |
-1.85% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
7 |
10 |
7 |
2 |
7 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
5 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
No |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| Closed Lower |
15 |
19 |
13 |
15 |
10 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
18 |
| Penetrated Low | 13 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
6 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
| Scenario Percentage |
87% |
53% |
92% |
67% |
60% |
88% |
79% |
87% |
78% |
88% |
78% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.53% |
6.98% |
4.51% |
6.96% |
4.79% |
5.97% |
8.45% |
7.44% |
5.55% |
6.83% |
11.28% |
| Max Decline |
19.63% |
21.13% |
13.17% |
20.91% |
8.36% |
14.95% |
24.92% |
21.29% |
20.24% |
30.36% |
64.31% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
17 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
13 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.87% |
-0.86% |
-0.85% |
-0.45% |
-1.18% |
-2.49% |
-1.70% |
-0.52% |
-2.22% |
-1.36% |
-1.58% |
| Max Increase |
-4.67% |
-3.59% |
-5.00% |
-5.35% |
-2.41% |
-7.69% |
-5.91% |
-2.10% |
-12.86% |
-5.45% |
-12.06% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
7 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
-45 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
No |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| High |
295.0 |
305.7 |
296.4 |
288.4 |
286.8 |
284.1 |
277.0 |
280.4 |
275.9 |
270.8 |
272.9 |
| Low |
284.9 |
286.2 |
288.4 |
280.8 |
277.5 |
268.5 |
270.0 |
273.0 |
264.4 |
256.0 |
256.6 |
| Close/Last |
286.2 |
302.7 |
288.4 |
287.2 |
282.2 |
271.5 |
275.9 |
276.2 |
268.0 |
267.8 |
257.9 |
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