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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of Mar 19, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29
Closed Higher 10 10 13 8 12 13 17 10 12 13 11
Exceeded High 6 6 9 5 10 10 11 7 9 11 7
Scenario Percentage 60% 60% 69% 63% 83% 77% 65% 70% 75% 85% 64%
Avg Max Increase 7.22% 6.54% 7.26% 6.36% 13.58% 14.09% 9.21% 7.21% 15.68% 12.88% 4.80%
Max Increase 15.84% 13.38% 26.39% 12.82% 42.74% 36.10% 21.89% 14.24% 102.79% 61.37% 11.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase 22 13 14 16 16 18 12 14 14 15 11
Avg Max Decline -1.01% -0.84% -1.08% -0.48% -1.71% -0.48% -0.62% -1.43% -1.45% -1.68% -1.52%
Max Decline -1.91% -2.74% -4.28% -2.15% -4.04% -2.44% -2.75% -3.39% -4.30% -6.04% -4.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 8 8 14 6 3 6 2 5 6 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes     Yes No     Yes Yes
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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29
Closed Lower 18 17 15 20 16 15 11 18 16 15 18
Penetrated Low 17 14 13 11 15 10 7 15 13 13 11
Scenario Percentage 94% 82% 87% 55% 94% 67% 64% 83% 81% 87% 61%
Avg Max Decline 4.71% 4.91% 6.55% 6.84% 4.74% 7.16% 5.90% 5.82% 7.20% 7.01% 12.59%
Max Decline 11.74% 15.90% 19.71% 21.05% 12.99% 21.59% 12.60% 15.38% 24.75% 19.93% 49.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 21 15 17 16 22 21 13 15 15 18
Avg Max Increase -1.64% -2.61% -2.00% -1.10% -1.05% -0.56% -1.93% -2.41% -1.67% -0.39% -1.40%
Max Increase -9.30% -5.98% -4.94% -3.22% -5.65% -5.99% -5.84% -7.53% -6.56% -2.09% -3.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase 9 12 6 9 9 11 13 10 9 6 9
2003 Contract Condition       Yes Yes     Yes Yes    
Action       Yes Yes     No Yes    
High 307.7 315.7 332.0 333.7 327.0 321.0 330.0 325.3 326.2 351.5 372.9
Low 294.4 303.0 311.4 316.8 303.5 301.0 314.5 310.0 317.5 316.6 343.2
Close/Last 307.7 313.0 330.6 316.8 305.9 314.6 326.0 319.3 317.8 348.2 368.3