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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
| Tested Years |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
| Closed Higher |
11 |
11 |
15 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
11 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
| Exceeded High |
7 |
7 |
10 |
5 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
8 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
64% |
64% |
67% |
63% |
85% |
80% |
68% |
73% |
79% |
86% |
64% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.28% |
6.98% |
6.88% |
6.36% |
13.35% |
12.55% |
8.73% |
7.09% |
13.62% |
12.05% |
4.80% |
| Max Increase |
15.84% |
13.38% |
26.39% |
12.82% |
42.74% |
36.10% |
21.89% |
14.24% |
102.79% |
61.37% |
11.74% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
11 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.97% |
-0.69% |
-1.23% |
-0.48% |
-1.76% |
-0.84% |
-1.07% |
-1.58% |
-1.28% |
-1.50% |
-1.52% |
| Max Decline |
-1.91% |
-2.74% |
-4.28% |
-2.15% |
-4.04% |
-3.70% |
-4.88% |
-3.39% |
-4.30% |
-6.04% |
-4.33% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
7 |
8 |
14 |
6 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
No |
Yes |
|
Yes |
No |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
| Tested Years |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
| Closed Lower |
19 |
18 |
15 |
22 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
| Penetrated Low |
18 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
10 |
7 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
| Scenario Percentage |
95% |
83% |
87% |
55% |
88% |
67% |
64% |
79% |
81% |
88% |
65% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.71% |
4.83% |
6.55% |
6.37% |
4.74% |
7.16% |
5.90% |
5.82% |
7.20% |
6.97% |
14.16% |
| Max Decline |
11.74% |
15.90% |
19.71% |
21.05% |
12.99% |
21.59% |
12.60% |
15.38% |
24.75% |
19.93% |
49.57% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
18 |
20 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.53% |
-2.54% |
-2.00% |
-1.18% |
-1.05% |
-0.56% |
-1.93% |
-2.41% |
-1.67% |
-0.32% |
-1.70% |
| Max Increase |
-9.30% |
-5.98% |
-4.94% |
-3.22% |
-5.65% |
-5.99% |
-5.84% |
-7.53% |
-6.56% |
-2.09% |
-3.55% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
12 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
10 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
|
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| High |
279.5 |
270.9 |
295.0 |
279.8 |
274.5 |
285.0 |
297.5 |
295.0 |
283.3 |
281.4 |
288.7 |
| Low |
264.7 |
262.0 |
269.0 |
269.3 |
268.5 |
270.0 |
274.1 |
276.5 |
272.9 |
271.7 |
277.2 |
| Close/Last |
264.7 |
268.8 |
269.7 |
274.4 |
270.1 |
277.4 |
294.4 |
281.1 |
274.9 |
279.0 |
282.1 |
|
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