MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Dec 05, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years	12	24	29	30	31	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher	9	17	15	13	18	18	19	19	19	19	14
Exceeded High	9	13	9	12	12	15	18	17	17	15	5
Scenario Percentage	100%	76%	60%	92%	67%	83%	95%	89%	89%	79%	36%
Avg Max Increase	5.66%	3.96%	5.49%	6.13%	6.36%	6.78%	6.94%	5.39%	5.18%	4.11%	1.88%
Max Increase	14.30%	16.22%	13.46%	23.93%	16.07%	18.16%	33.08%	12.84%	16.13%	10.84%	4.36%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	15	17	16	18	19	16	15	10	11	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.21%	-0.82%	-1.00%	-0.81%	-1.09%	-1.09%	-1.25%	-1.55%	-1.27%	-1.56%	-0.91%
Max Decline	-0.59%	-3.23%	-5.05%	-1.95%	-2.81%	-4.10%	-3.99%	-5.19%	-7.19%	-8.14%	-1.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	6	7	6	13	11	8	6	6	5	3
2003 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years	12	24	29	30	31	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower	3	7	14	16	12	14	13	13	13	13	16
Penetrated Low	1	4	11	13	7	11	9	11	8	10	10
Scenario Percentage	33%	57%	79%	81%	58%	79%	69%	85%	62%	77%	63%
Avg Max Decline	5.69%	6.14%	7.09%	5.66%	3.91%	6.72%	6.22%	7.27%	6.49%	3.42%	9.25%
Max Decline	5.69%	16.98%	22.26%	11.39%	8.27%	12.57%	12.22%	25.87%	16.68%	10.34%	44.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline	1	14	15	17	16	17	14	12	11	13	12
Avg Max Increase	-0.57%	-1.04%	-0.65%	-1.38%	-0.67%	-1.17%	-1.62%	-2.20%	-0.93%	-2.16%	-0.92%
Max Increase	-0.57%	-3.69%	-1.94%	-6.67%	-1.69%	-4.01%	-4.87%	-8.96%	-3.73%	-7.18%	-4.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase	9	4	5	8	4	4	8	9	4	10	4
2003 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes
High	85.500	84.600	83.100	81.700	84.200	86.700	87.225	90.000	92.450	97.300	107.075
Low	83.700	82.000	79.900	79.000	81.950	83.000	84.100	86.350	87.800	92.200	95.700
Close/Last	84.000	83.150	80.850	81.600	84.200	85.950	87.025	89.450	92.200	96.600	101.275