MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	6	23	30	30	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher	3	14	17	22	18	15	21	19	19	21	21
Exceeded High	2	12	17	19	12	13	15	16	17	18	11
Scenario Percentage	67%	86%	100%	86%	67%	87%	71%	84%	89%	86%	52%
Avg Max Increase	3.17%	5.01%	5.21%	4.65%	6.22%	6.28%	6.53%	7.16%	6.18%	5.81%	5.00%
Max Increase	6.11%	11.41%	14.86%	16.98%	13.74%	23.29%	15.76%	15.98%	10.82%	13.26%	13.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase	10	19	14	14	18	16	17	22	16	14	16
Avg Max Decline	-1.18%	-0.78%	-0.50%	-1.04%	-1.26%	-0.97%	-0.89%	-1.70%	-1.48%	-1.61%	-0.67%
Max Decline	-2.20%	-2.72%	-1.75%	-3.61%	-4.67%	-2.50%	-2.87%	-6.10%	-4.86%	-6.34%	-1.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	12	8	7	5	7	10	10	7	6	2
2006 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes	Yes

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	6	23	30	30	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower	3	9	12	8	15	18	13	15	15	13	12
Penetrated Low	2	6	6	5	13	14	8	10	10	10	9
Scenario Percentage	67%	67%	50%	63%	87%	78%	62%	67%	67%	77%	75%
Avg Max Decline	1.28%	6.29%	5.60%	8.85%	5.53%	6.11%	7.54%	8.80%	6.44%	6.02%	7.12%
Max Decline	1.73%	14.00%	7.91%	16.56%	16.03%	12.14%	29.88%	15.13%	12.06%	22.58%	20.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	21	16	21	18	17	17	19	15	15	15
Avg Max Increase	-1.46%	-0.75%	-1.08%	-1.22%	-0.66%	-1.65%	-1.22%	-1.39%	-1.84%	-2.92%	-1.37%
Max Increase	-2.56%	-1.99%	-2.32%	-4.37%	-1.94%	-8.09%	-3.24%	-4.09%	-5.51%	-8.36%	-5.88%
Avg Days to Max Increase	18	7	6	8	4	9	10	5	9	14	6
2006 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	108.000	111.300	112.800	113.900	110.550	108.400	104.825	103.850
Low	106.250	107.500	110.800	110.350	107.250	103.400	99.800	100.900
Close/Last	108.000	110.900	112.800	110.700	107.850	103.600	101.500	103.825