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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 6 23 28 28 31 31 32 32 32 32 32
Closed Higher 3 14 17 20 18 14 19 17 18 20 20
Exceeded High 2 12 17 17 12 12 13 15 16 17 10
Scenario Percentage 67% 86% 100% 85% 67% 86% 68% 88% 89% 85% 50%
Avg Max Increase 3.17% 5.13% 5.21% 4.72% 6.22% 6.26% 5.95% 7.01% 6.11% 5.97% 5.10%
Max Increase 6.11% 11.41% 14.86% 16.98% 13.74% 23.29% 15.60% 15.98% 10.82% 13.26% 13.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase 10 20 14 14 18 16 16 22 16 14 15
Avg Max Decline -1.18% -0.90% -0.50% -0.94% -1.26% -0.96% -0.95% -1.63% -1.45% -1.57% -0.56%
Max Decline -2.20% -2.72% -1.75% -3.61% -4.67% -2.50% -2.87% -6.10% -4.86% -6.34% -1.41%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 12 8 7 5 7 11 11 7 6 3
2003 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 6 23 28 28 31 31 32 32 32 32 32
Closed Lower 3 9 10 8 13 17 13 15 14 12 11
Penetrated Low 2 6 6 5 12 14 8 10 9 10 8
Scenario Percentage 67% 67% 60% 63% 92% 82% 62% 67% 64% 83% 73%
Avg Max Decline 1.28% 6.29% 5.60% 8.85% 5.79% 6.11% 7.54% 8.80% 6.69% 6.02% 7.64%
Max Decline 1.73% 14.00% 7.91% 16.56% 16.03% 12.14% 29.88% 15.13% 12.06% 22.58% 20.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 21 16 21 18 17 17 19 15 15 17
Avg Max Increase -1.46% -0.75% -1.08% -1.22% -0.58% -1.65% -1.22% -1.39% -1.74% -2.92% -1.56%
Max Increase -2.56% -1.99% -2.32% -4.37% -1.94% -8.09% -3.24% -4.09% -5.51% -8.36% -5.88%
Avg Days to Max Increase 18 7 6 8 4 9 10 5 9 14 6
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes            
Action     Yes Yes Yes            
High 81.000 84.750 85.350 84.800 82.900 81.650 84.000 86.350 87.000 91.175 96.300
Low 77.650 81.000 83.500 81.700 79.500 78.500 81.300 81.875 83.800 85.950 88.950
Close/Last 81.000 84.750 83.950 83.000 80.525 81.350 83.950 85.575 86.900 90.300 96.225