MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Mar 31, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	13	25	28	30	31	31	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher	5	15	14	17	14	17	17	23	20	17	20
Exceeded High	5	10	10	14	10	15	17	19	16	16	13
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	71%	82%	71%	88%	100%	83%	80%	94%	65%
Avg Max Increase	4.07%	3.88%	4.41%	4.26%	3.17%	4.95%	5.45%	5.88%	6.58%	6.75%	3.70%
Max Increase	6.75%	8.60%	10.67%	8.83%	6.51%	10.55%	17.01%	16.55%	21.46%	21.17%	11.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	20	16	22	16	19	16	17	18	14	15
Avg Max Decline	-0.99%	-1.38%	-1.64%	-1.82%	-0.91%	-1.37%	-0.93%	-1.57%	-2.16%	-1.91%	-0.45%
Max Decline	-2.40%	-4.48%	-4.98%	-9.65%	-3.19%	-4.84%	-2.66%	-5.66%	-5.23%	-4.62%	-1.82%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	14	9	12	5	10	11	11	11	8	2
2006 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	13	25	28	30	31	31	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower	8	10	12	13	17	13	17	11	14	17	14
Penetrated Low	7	8	8	11	12	7	9	9	10	14	8
Scenario Percentage	88%	80%	67%	85%	71%	54%	53%	82%	71%	82%	57%
Avg Max Decline	4.66%	4.90%	2.09%	3.66%	5.47%	7.45%	6.76%	6.98%	8.30%	7.42%	3.87%
Max Decline	7.50%	13.63%	4.73%	10.14%	18.56%	17.50%	16.54%	17.19%	18.27%	17.99%	7.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	15	11	18	18	22	22	19	22	14	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.50%	-1.36%	-1.23%	-1.16%	-1.00%	-1.13%	-1.37%	-1.34%	-1.06%	-1.63%	-1.74%
Max Increase	-4.57%	-5.64%	-3.14%	-2.23%	-3.22%	-2.48%	-3.09%	-4.46%	-3.22%	-7.21%	-9.70%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	8	11	13	10	8	8	8	8	7	4
2006 Contract Condition		Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No						Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	102.500	100.100	100.500	105.400	109.000	112.500	114.000	114.300	111.550	108.650
Low	99.400	96.000	97.800	99.000	105.300	108.000	111.200	110.400	106.950	101.700
Close/Last	99.450	97.600	100.200	105.400	108.400	112.325	114.000	111.200	107.725	101.750