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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jul 29, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 13 24 27 29 30 30 33 33 33 33 33
Closed Higher 5 14 14 16 14 17 17 22 20 16 19
Exceeded High 5 9 10 13 10 15 17 18 16 15 12
Scenario Percentage 100% 64% 71% 81% 71% 88% 100% 82% 80% 94% 63%
Avg Max Increase 4.07% 4.04% 4.41% 4.40% 3.17% 4.95% 5.45% 5.82% 6.58% 6.80% 3.80%
Max Increase 6.75% 8.60% 10.67% 8.83% 6.51% 10.55% 17.01% 16.55% 21.46% 21.74% 11.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase 15 19 16 22 16 19 16 16 18 14 15
Avg Max Decline -0.99% -1.32% -1.64% -1.93% -0.91% -1.37% -0.93% -1.46% -2.16% -1.96% -0.46%
Max Decline -2.40% -4.48% -4.98% -9.65% -3.19% -4.84% -2.66% -5.66% -5.23% -4.62% -1.82%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 11 9 12 5 10 11 10 11 8 2
2004 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes   No Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 13 24 27 29 30 30 33 33 33 33 33
Closed Lower 8 10 11 13 16 12 16 11 13 17 14
Penetrated Low 7 8 7 11 11 7 9 9 10 14 8
Scenario Percentage 88% 80% 64% 85% 69% 58% 56% 82% 77% 82% 57%
Avg Max Decline 4.66% 4.90% 2.25% 3.66% 5.38% 7.45% 6.76% 6.98% 8.30% 7.42% 3.87%
Max Decline 7.50% 13.63% 4.73% 10.14% 18.56% 17.50% 16.54% 17.19% 18.27% 17.99% 7.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 15 12 18 18 22 22 19 22 14 13
Avg Max Increase -1.50% -1.36% -1.45% -1.16% -1.08% -1.13% -1.37% -1.34% -1.06% -1.63% -1.74%
Max Increase -4.57% -5.64% -3.14% -2.23% -3.22% -2.48% -3.09% -4.46% -3.22% -7.21% -9.70%
Avg Days to Max Increase 10 8 13 13 11 8 8 8 8 7 4
2004 Contract Condition       Yes     Yes        
Action       No     No        
High 84.000 85.400 86.750 88.000 93.900 91.150 92.825 87.300 87.100 88.750 98.600
Low 83.750 83.900 84.450 84.400 85.250 86.400 79.100 80.600 83.550 84.000 85.725
Close/Last 83.950 85.400 86.300 85.250 86.900 90.975 80.250 85.875 86.575 87.150 98.300