MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Dec 31, 2005
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years	8	22	28	29	29	31	31	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	5	12	17	14	16	12	19	18	23	18	17
Exceeded High	5	11	11	11	13	7	17	18	19	13	14
Scenario Percentage	100%	92%	65%	79%	81%	58%	89%	100%	83%	72%	82%
Avg Max Increase	6.35%	4.98%	3.66%	3.93%	3.97%	4.09%	5.02%	5.68%	5.90%	7.56%	4.46%
Max Increase	9.27%	9.99%	8.89%	10.58%	7.61%	7.62%	10.71%	16.45%	18.88%	21.09%	13.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase	22	19	17	13	21	18	18	15	15	13	15
Avg Max Decline	-3.31%	-0.69%	-1.26%	-1.63%	-1.24%	-1.45%	-1.33%	-1.05%	-1.62%	-1.32%	-1.02%
Max Decline	-9.58%	-2.20%	-4.91%	-5.68%	-4.22%	-3.55%	-4.91%	-3.29%	-5.36%	-4.57%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	9	10	11	11	9	9	8	10	5	2
2006 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years	8	22	28	29	29	31	31	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	3	10	11	15	13	18	12	15	10	15	16
Penetrated Low	3	7	9	9	11	11	6	9	7	10	9
Scenario Percentage	100%	70%	82%	60%	85%	61%	50%	60%	70%	67%	56%
Avg Max Decline	4.39%	5.77%	4.96%	2.55%	3.47%	6.46%	8.03%	7.01%	7.99%	7.89%	9.16%
Max Decline	8.48%	10.47%	14.00%	4.94%	10.27%	18.71%	17.23%	15.63%	16.52%	13.35%	25.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline	24	10	14	14	20	20	20	22	20	14	18
Avg Max Increase	-0.94%	-1.16%	-2.05%	-1.14%	-1.04%	-1.17%	-1.11%	-1.77%	-1.90%	-0.56%	-1.59%
Max Increase	-3.76%	-4.71%	-6.32%	-2.92%	-2.23%	-3.41%	-3.15%	-3.59%	-5.10%	-2.82%	-5.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase	7	5	11	12	10	14	8	9	7	5	4
2006 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes						Yes
Action		Yes	No
High	103.800	103.800	100.400	100.450	105.500	109.750	114.100	115.000	114.750
Low	101.000	99.250	95.500	97.700	99.025	105.500	108.500	111.300	113.750
Close/Last	103.500	99.250	97.600	100.250	105.500	109.050	113.725	115.000	114.050