MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Feeder Cattle(CME) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	6	22	26	29	30	30	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher	5	11	14	17	17	17	11	19	18	18	15
Exceeded High	3	10	13	11	12	13	7	17	17	14	7
Scenario Percentage	60%	91%	93%	65%	71%	76%	64%	89%	94%	78%	47%
Avg Max Increase	7.82%	4.63%	4.39%	3.96%	4.38%	5.36%	3.89%	6.33%	6.12%	6.82%	5.11%
Max Increase	13.41%	8.56%	9.73%	9.12%	11.69%	8.82%	5.76%	22.42%	15.82%	16.68%	10.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	19	19	17	16	21	18	17	16	14	14
Avg Max Decline	-0.25%	-1.92%	-0.83%	-1.39%	-1.97%	-2.35%	-1.50%	-1.59%	-1.17%	-1.65%	-0.56%
Max Decline	-0.67%	-10.19%	-2.48%	-5.11%	-5.64%	-9.63%	-4.75%	-5.65%	-3.58%	-8.80%	-1.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	13	8	6	12	13	7	10	6	6	2
2004 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes		No	Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	6	22	26	29	30	30	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower	1	11	12	12	13	13	21	12	14	14	16
Penetrated Low		6	9	10	7	11	13	8	9	11	11
Scenario Percentage	0%	55%	75%	83%	54%	85%	62%	67%	64%	79%	69%
Avg Max Decline		5.51%	5.64%	4.93%	3.66%	3.64%	6.74%	9.10%	7.42%	6.37%	9.87%
Max Decline		9.41%	10.51%	14.35%	9.05%	10.04%	17.94%	16.94%	15.28%	12.39%	33.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	14	13	19	18	18	21	17	20
Avg Max Increase		-1.00%	-1.24%	-1.71%	-1.03%	-1.11%	-1.75%	-1.85%	-1.97%	-1.93%	-0.77%
Max Increase		-1.73%	-4.09%	-5.95%	-3.02%	-2.93%	-3.32%	-7.17%	-4.74%	-5.58%	-2.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	9	5	8	13	9	10	9	4
2004 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes			Yes
Action			No			No			No
High	83.200	84.400	84.600	85.450	87.250	89.400	97.450	93.500	95.350	86.400	87.050
Low	81.000	82.375	82.300	83.050	84.500	85.150	86.950	88.250	77.500	79.200	81.650
Close/Last	83.200	84.200	83.700	85.200	87.250	87.225	89.250	93.375	78.750	83.675	86.500