MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Apr 17, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	6	21	25	28	29	29	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	5	10	14	16	16	17	10	18	18	17	14
Exceeded High	3	9	13	10	11	13	7	16	17	13	6
Scenario Percentage	60%	90%	93%	63%	69%	76%	70%	89%	94%	76%	43%
Avg Max Increase	7.82%	4.98%	4.39%	3.87%	3.71%	5.36%	3.89%	6.59%	6.12%	6.69%	5.14%
Max Increase	13.41%	8.56%	9.73%	9.12%	11.60%	8.82%	5.76%	22.42%	15.82%	16.68%	10.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	18	19	18	16	21	18	18	16	13	13
Avg Max Decline	-0.25%	-1.88%	-0.83%	-1.45%	-1.93%	-2.35%	-1.50%	-1.69%	-1.17%	-1.59%	-0.48%
Max Decline	-0.67%	-10.19%	-2.48%	-5.11%	-5.64%	-9.63%	-4.75%	-5.65%	-3.58%	-8.80%	-1.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	13	8	6	11	13	7	11	6	6	2
2003 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	6	21	25	28	29	29	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	1	11	11	12	13	12	21	12	13	14	16
Penetrated Low		6	9	10	7	11	13	8	9	11	11
Scenario Percentage	0%	55%	82%	83%	54%	92%	62%	67%	69%	79%	69%
Avg Max Decline		5.51%	5.64%	4.93%	3.66%	3.64%	6.74%	9.10%	7.42%	6.37%	9.87%
Max Decline		9.41%	10.51%	14.35%	9.05%	10.04%	17.94%	16.94%	15.28%	12.39%	33.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	14	13	19	18	18	21	17	20
Avg Max Increase		-1.00%	-1.24%	-1.71%	-1.03%	-1.11%	-1.75%	-1.85%	-1.97%	-1.93%	-0.77%
Max Increase		-1.73%	-4.09%	-5.95%	-3.02%	-2.93%	-3.32%	-7.17%	-4.74%	-5.58%	-2.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	9	5	8	13	9	10	9	4
2003 Contract Condition		Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No							Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	76.500	78.150	77.050	77.200	77.650	78.700	79.800	83.250	83.950	83.100	79.700
Low	73.500	74.450	74.700	74.650	75.000	75.600	75.950	79.175	80.850	77.850	73.950
Close/Last	76.500	74.450	74.750	75.600	76.775	77.100	79.375	82.850	81.950	79.750	76.150