MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Nov 30, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	8	19	20	24	24	25	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher		5	7	13	14	14	18	14	16	11	18
Exceeded High		4	7	10	13	14	13	13	14	9	10
Scenario Percentage		80%	100%	77%	93%	100%	72%	93%	88%	82%	56%
Avg Max Increase		6.54%	6.49%	4.39%	4.92%	4.80%	4.42%	4.33%	4.92%	4.28%	2.72%
Max Increase		15.76%	23.36%	14.18%	9.86%	10.16%	9.97%	15.07%	12.29%	8.07%	5.14%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	14	17	22	17	16	12	19	16	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.93%	-1.25%	-0.83%	-2.47%	-1.11%	-1.19%	-1.38%	-1.80%	-1.36%	-0.82%
Max Decline		-4.25%	-7.28%	-2.36%	-11.41%	-3.46%	-5.37%	-5.73%	-7.29%	-4.34%	-3.70%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	15	12	5	7	10	9	9	3
2005 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	8	19	20	24	24	25	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower		3	12	7	10	10	7	13	10	16	9
Penetrated Low		2	10	3	5	7	6	9	10	8	5
Scenario Percentage		67%	83%	43%	50%	70%	86%	69%	100%	50%	56%
Avg Max Decline		5.73%	4.13%	5.04%	6.11%	6.06%	4.01%	2.47%	3.91%	6.70%	7.92%
Max Decline		5.96%	11.95%	7.31%	10.44%	10.88%	5.89%	5.40%	10.80%	14.57%	13.76%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	20	18	21	17	10	18	18	16	18
Avg Max Increase		-0.07%	-1.94%	-0.27%	-0.91%	-1.64%	-2.13%	-2.21%	-1.55%	-1.94%	-0.99%
Max Increase		-0.14%	-6.97%	-0.84%	-1.76%	-4.42%	-6.75%	-6.22%	-4.88%	-3.99%	-1.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	9	5	12	11	11	18	9	13	3
2005 Contract Condition								Yes		Yes	Yes
Action								Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High			88.300	94.500	99.200	103.850	106.850	108.600	107.400	110.250	105.850
Low			86.300	85.500	93.750	96.800	100.100	103.100	102.000	105.425	99.400
Close/Last			86.300	93.000	98.650	100.800	104.600	104.450	106.375	105.525	103.950