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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 16, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years 8 18 19 23 23 24 26 26 26 26 26
Closed Higher 5 6 12 13 13 17 13 15 10 17 14
Exceeded High 4 6 9 12 13 12 12 13 8 14 11
Scenario Percentage 80% 100% 75% 92% 100% 71% 92% 87% 80% 82% 79%
Avg Max Increase 6.54% 6.72% 4.62% 5.03% 4.76% 4.30% 3.43% 4.35% 3.82% 4.93% 3.27%
Max Increase 15.76% 23.36% 14.18% 9.86% 10.16% 9.97% 10.40% 8.09% 7.86% 10.33% 7.28%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 14 19 21 17 17 12 19 18 18 16
Avg Max Decline -0.93% -1.48% -0.77% -2.45% -1.14% -1.14% -1.37% -1.94% -1.37% -1.99% -0.61%
Max Decline -4.25% -7.28% -2.36% -11.41% -3.46% -5.37% -5.73% -7.29% -4.34% -5.38% -2.57%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 10 15 12 5 6 9 10 8 12 4
2004 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years 8 18 19 23 23 24 26 26 26 26 26
Closed Lower 3 12 7 10 10 7 13 10 16 9 11
Penetrated Low 2 10 3 5 7 6 9 10 8 6 6
Scenario Percentage 67% 83% 43% 50% 70% 86% 69% 100% 50% 67% 55%
Avg Max Decline 5.73% 4.13% 5.04% 6.11% 6.06% 4.01% 2.47% 3.91% 6.81% 7.39% 13.30%
Max Decline 5.96% 11.95% 7.31% 10.44% 10.88% 5.89% 5.40% 10.80% 14.68% 13.88% 44.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline 21 20 18 21 17 10 18 18 18 17 17
Avg Max Increase -0.07% -1.94% -0.27% -0.91% -1.64% -2.13% -2.21% -1.55% -1.94% -1.45% -1.71%
Max Increase -0.14% -6.97% -0.84% -1.76% -4.42% -6.75% -6.22% -4.88% -3.99% -3.74% -4.18%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 9 5 12 11 11 18 9 13 6 6
2004 Contract Condition                     Yes
Action                     Not Yet
High 83.500 81.850 84.000 85.700 85.900 87.750 89.525 92.150 102.125 99.500 102.450
Low 80.400 79.300 81.650 82.800 82.400 84.250 85.500 87.500 90.950 93.600 78.500
Close/Last 80.850 81.550 83.975 84.700 84.900 87.075 88.750 90.950 94.800 99.375 78.925