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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June EuroFX(CME) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17
Closed Higher   7 7 9 9 7 9 6 9 7 9 6
Exceeded High   7 6 8 8 5 5 5 7 7 7 4
Scenario Percentage   100% 86% 89% 89% 71% 56% 83% 78% 100% 78% 67%
Avg Max Increase   3.47% 3.40% 3.69% 3.89% 5.08% 3.74% 3.69% 3.93% 5.83% 2.97% 2.06%
Max Increase   6.39% 5.50% 7.34% 7.06% 9.95% 4.25% 6.98% 7.84% 9.75% 6.89% 3.39%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 14 19 20 21 10 17 22 22 13 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.17% -0.72% -1.05% -0.89% -0.65% -1.72% -1.28% -1.08% -1.40% -0.90% -0.50%
Max Decline   -2.98% -2.62% -1.93% -2.17% -1.13% -3.69% -2.92% -2.73% -3.07% -2.80% -0.82%
Avg Days to Max Decline   17 3 12 7 6 7 9 6 5 4 2
2015 Contract Condition                     Yes  
Action                     Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17
Closed Lower   8 8 6 6 9 7 11 8 10 8 11
Penetrated Low   5 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 9 6 7
Scenario Percentage   63% 75% 100% 83% 67% 86% 73% 88% 90% 75% 64%
Avg Max Decline   5.46% 4.42% 4.08% 3.10% 4.79% 4.75% 4.37% 4.58% 4.94% 5.46% 1.56%
Max Decline   10.45% 14.53% 12.41% 5.24% 10.74% 8.26% 7.38% 7.17% 10.14% 10.78% 3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 17 15 22 23 17 17 24 9 8
Avg Max Increase   -0.80% -0.52% -0.83% -0.18% -2.03% -1.29% -1.82% -0.66% -1.38% -0.82% -0.58%
Max Increase   -1.44% -1.74% -1.53% -0.64% -3.72% -2.76% -3.74% -1.59% -2.96% -2.33% -0.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 5 5 15 18 4 7 6 10 5 3
2015 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No   Not Yet
High 137.19 137.19 134.58 131.89 128.52 126.10 125.82 121.11 115.46 112.54 112.73 114.72
Low 135.49 134.12 131.65 126.05 125.26 123.91 121.16 111.17 111.90 104.73 105.29 108.21
Close/Last 137.19 134.13 131.65 126.58 125.46 124.55 121.18 113.07 112.08 107.54 112.66 109.83

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