MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Eurodollars(CME) as of Nov 14, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Closed Higher	12	10	5	11	10	16	12	13	14	15	9
Exceeded High	7	9	5	9	9	13	12	13	13	9	6
Scenario Percentage	58%	90%	100%	82%	90%	81%	100%	100%	93%	60%	67%
Avg Max Increase	0.51%	0.51%	0.85%	0.95%	0.71%	0.70%	0.78%	1.07%	0.69%	0.47%	0.34%
Max Increase	1.06%	1.55%	2.37%	2.50%	1.43%	2.29%	2.72%	4.42%	2.88%	1.47%	0.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase	12	17	19	17	22	15	14	18	15	9	11
Avg Max Decline	-0.19%	-0.35%	-0.16%	-0.11%	-0.14%	-0.09%	-0.11%	-0.17%	-0.12%	-0.13%	-0.02%
Max Decline	-0.39%	-0.96%	-0.40%	-0.47%	-0.60%	-0.39%	-0.34%	-0.76%	-0.45%	-0.60%	-0.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	14	4	3	6	7	6	4	7	10	2
2002 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	No	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Closed Lower	6	9	15	9	10	4	6	7	6	4	10
Penetrated Low	5	9	10	8	6	2	4	3	3	3	10
Scenario Percentage	83%	100%	67%	89%	60%	50%	67%	43%	50%	75%	100%
Avg Max Decline	0.42%	0.79%	0.91%	0.73%	0.35%	0.18%	0.38%	0.89%	0.72%	0.41%	1.85%
Max Decline	0.77%	1.89%	2.63%	2.22%	0.90%	0.26%	0.63%	2.09%	1.37%	0.68%	5.76%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	17	15	18	18	10	14	21	24	11	10
Avg Max Increase	-0.19%	-0.13%	-0.14%	-0.05%	-0.25%	-0.18%	-0.09%	-0.19%	-0.15%	-0.08%	-0.14%
Max Increase	-0.41%	-0.33%	-0.41%	-0.14%	-0.66%	-0.21%	-0.13%	-0.39%	-0.25%	-0.17%	-0.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	7	4	4	7	13	4	8	16	6	5
2002 Contract Condition			Yes
Action			No
High	97.005	96.900	96.725	96.925	97.185	97.895	98.285	98.420	98.525	98.575	98.700
Low	96.235	96.400	95.930	96.065	96.745	97.000	97.680	98.140	98.160	98.205	98.500
Close/Last	96.465	96.765	96.085	96.880	97.090	97.730	98.140	98.220	98.510	98.545	98.590