MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Eurodollars(CME) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	23	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher	17	11	15	13	12	8	14	12	19	16	16
Exceeded High	13	11	15	8	11	7	13	11	14	16	9
Scenario Percentage	76%	100%	100%	62%	92%	88%	93%	92%	74%	100%	56%
Avg Max Increase	0.76%	0.78%	0.61%	0.50%	0.45%	0.68%	0.72%	0.52%	0.49%	0.53%	0.25%
Max Increase	1.59%	1.86%	1.09%	0.99%	1.50%	2.38%	2.39%	1.00%	1.69%	3.82%	0.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	19	19	13	19	16	15	20	16	8	6
Avg Max Decline	-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.19%	-0.12%	-0.34%	-0.14%	-0.09%	-0.04%	-0.08%	-0.05%	-0.02%
Max Decline	-0.45%	-0.38%	-0.67%	-0.33%	-1.06%	-0.34%	-0.55%	-0.13%	-0.27%	-0.17%	-0.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	8	7	4	12	5	3	2	10	3	1
2006 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes
Action			Yes				Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	23	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower	6	12	7	10	11	16	9	12	5	8	7
Penetrated Low	6	8	7	9	11	9	9	8	2	7	5
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	100%	90%	100%	56%	100%	67%	40%	88%	71%
Avg Max Decline	0.58%	0.39%	0.56%	0.59%	0.66%	0.84%	0.60%	0.31%	0.19%	0.18%	1.69%
Max Decline	1.27%	0.66%	1.38%	1.93%	1.71%	2.14%	1.82%	0.72%	0.21%	0.38%	5.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	11	14	19	18	15	18	14	11	10	8
Avg Max Increase	-0.05%	-0.10%	-0.08%	-0.15%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.04%	-0.16%	-0.03%	-0.11%	-0.08%
Max Increase	-0.22%	-0.27%	-0.29%	-0.39%	-0.30%	-0.31%	-0.08%	-0.64%	-0.05%	-0.48%	-0.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	3	9	6	6	5	5	8	13	6	-141
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	95.420	95.320	95.240	95.340	95.090	94.965	94.785	94.760
Low	95.135	95.005	95.045	95.060	94.810	94.710	94.585	94.650
Close/Last	95.155	95.140	95.160	95.075	94.875	94.735	94.760	94.705