MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Eurodollars(CME) as of Jul 08, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	20	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher	15	11	13	11	10	6	12	10	18	15	13
Exceeded High	12	11	13	6	9	6	11	9	14	15	8
Scenario Percentage	80%	100%	100%	55%	90%	100%	92%	90%	78%	100%	62%
Avg Max Increase	0.79%	0.78%	0.66%	0.53%	0.51%	0.77%	0.81%	0.60%	0.49%	0.55%	0.26%
Max Increase	1.59%	1.86%	1.09%	0.99%	1.50%	2.38%	2.39%	1.00%	1.69%	3.82%	0.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	19	19	13	20	15	16	22	16	7	7
Avg Max Decline	-0.05%	-0.09%	-0.18%	-0.14%	-0.40%	-0.13%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.08%	-0.05%	-0.02%
Max Decline	-0.16%	-0.38%	-0.67%	-0.33%	-1.06%	-0.34%	-0.55%	-0.13%	-0.27%	-0.17%	-0.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	8	8	4	14	4	2	3	10	3	2
2003 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	20	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower	5	9	7	9	10	15	8	11	3	6	7
Penetrated Low	5	6	7	8	10	9	8	7	1	5	5
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	100%	89%	100%	60%	100%	64%	33%	83%	71%
Avg Max Decline	0.63%	0.46%	0.56%	0.60%	0.70%	0.84%	0.61%	0.31%	0.21%	0.23%	1.69%
Max Decline	1.27%	0.66%	1.38%	1.93%	1.71%	2.14%	1.82%	0.72%	0.21%	0.38%	5.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	11	14	18	17	15	18	14	13	13	8
Avg Max Increase	-0.06%	-0.10%	-0.08%	-0.17%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.04%	-0.18%	-0.05%	-0.15%	-0.08%
Max Increase	-0.22%	-0.27%	-0.29%	-0.39%	-0.30%	-0.31%	-0.08%	-0.64%	-0.05%	-0.48%	-0.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	3	9	6	6	5	6	9	20	7	-141
2003 Contract Condition		Yes								Yes
Action		Yes
High	98.200	98.250	98.520	98.565	98.705	98.940	98.865	98.975	99.105	98.950
Low	97.430	97.735	97.730	98.235	98.485	98.555	98.640	98.775	98.840	98.910
Close/Last	98.170	97.855	98.475	98.520	98.700	98.810	98.825	98.880	98.925	98.915