MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Eurodollars(CME) as of Mar 31, 2005
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	23	23	23
Closed Higher	12	13	18	16	11	15	13	11	9	12	11
Exceeded High	11	13	16	13	10	15	8	9	6	11	8
Scenario Percentage	92%	100%	89%	81%	91%	100%	62%	82%	67%	92%	73%
Avg Max Increase	0.93%	1.04%	0.76%	0.71%	0.83%	0.55%	0.42%	0.43%	0.79%	0.51%	0.20%
Max Increase	2.01%	3.61%	2.75%	1.62%	1.91%	1.11%	0.85%	1.41%	2.24%	1.69%	0.40%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	20	15	18	16	18	15	19	20	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-0.09%	-0.17%	-0.13%	-0.07%	-0.10%	-0.20%	-0.09%	-0.13%	-0.12%	-0.10%	-0.02%
Max Decline	-0.29%	-0.55%	-0.55%	-0.27%	-0.47%	-0.76%	-0.27%	-0.42%	-0.30%	-0.64%	-0.15%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	5	6	4	5	7	4	5	4	3	1
2005 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		No

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	23	23	23
Closed Lower	10	9	4	6	10	7	8	11	14	10	12
Penetrated Low	6	4	2	6	5	6	7	11	9	7	11
Scenario Percentage	60%	44%	50%	100%	50%	86%	88%	100%	64%	70%	92%
Avg Max Decline	0.51%	0.75%	1.00%	0.55%	0.44%	0.59%	0.55%	0.53%	0.53%	0.38%	2.90%
Max Decline	1.21%	1.83%	1.05%	1.31%	0.76%	1.39%	1.85%	1.26%	1.27%	1.07%	8.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline	14	11	22	16	15	13	15	19	14	15	11
Avg Max Increase	-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.11%	-0.07%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.12%	-0.09%	-0.10%	-0.04%	-0.13%
Max Increase	-0.27%	-0.13%	-0.13%	-0.20%	-0.19%	-0.30%	-0.29%	-0.25%	-0.26%	-0.11%	-0.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	2	7	4	3	11	5	6	5	5	5
2005 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	96.990	97.380	97.460	97.435	97.290	96.990	96.900	96.770	96.600
Low	96.615	96.860	97.080	97.115	96.790	96.750	96.670	96.535	96.400
Close/Last	96.870	97.340	97.220	97.295	96.840	96.825	96.730	96.545	96.485