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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Corn(CBOT) as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 33 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 17 23 25 19 21 19 14 23 15 18 22
Exceeded High 16 17 21 16 16 14 11 16 11 10 9
Scenario Percentage 94% 74% 84% 84% 76% 74% 79% 70% 73% 56% 41%
Avg Max Increase 5.88% 5.54% 7.25% 14.53% 13.64% 11.93% 11.82% 6.35% 9.40% 5.73% 4.44%
Max Increase 19.16% 15.51% 37.39% 62.47% 50.71% 37.37% 25.90% 13.70% 17.67% 12.80% 17.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 13 16 18 13 12 15 15 17 10 8
Avg Max Decline -1.12% -1.47% -1.31% -2.05% -2.62% -1.15% -2.95% -2.83% -2.59% -1.58% -0.43%
Max Decline -3.29% -5.76% -6.85% -6.87% -6.10% -6.27% -12.19% -11.79% -9.22% -6.88% -1.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 8 12 10 7 6 7 13 12 4 2
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes         Yes      
Action Yes Yes Yes         No      
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 33 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 16 21 19 25 23 25 30 22 30 26 22
Penetrated Low 16 15 16 22 20 21 24 18 24 19 15
Scenario Percentage 100% 71% 84% 88% 87% 84% 80% 82% 80% 73% 68%
Avg Max Decline 4.74% 4.57% 5.98% 7.59% 8.58% 9.92% 5.87% 4.48% 5.97% 6.19% 12.11%
Max Decline 17.02% 10.02% 12.32% 18.00% 22.54% 17.55% 13.47% 11.98% 13.59% 13.22% 62.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 18 16 20 23 17 17 14 19 12 10
Avg Max Increase -1.68% -2.34% -2.44% -2.24% -3.77% -1.25% -1.59% -1.20% -2.13% -1.80% -1.42%
Max Increase -5.97% -7.38% -7.08% -9.30% -18.17% -9.51% -11.02% -4.37% -5.13% -4.64% -3.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 11 10 9 11 3 8 6 11 5 3
2004 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Not Yet  
High 278.75 297.25 322.00 341.50 322.25 322.00 268.25 245.25 245.00 209.50 202.50
Low 249.25 266.25 285.50 297.50 278.00 264.75 225.00 225.00 204.00 197.00 199.25
Close/Last 274.00 295.50 317.75 317.25 297.25 267.00 225.50 237.75 205.50 202.50 200.00