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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 33 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45
Closed Higher 17 20 22 22 22 26 17 22 17 14 23
Exceeded High 10 11 16 19 18 24 13 15 12 9 12
Scenario Percentage 59% 55% 73% 86% 82% 92% 76% 68% 71% 64% 52%
Avg Max Increase 5.40% 6.83% 6.53% 5.38% 4.64% 7.21% 12.26% 13.77% 13.88% 11.10% 3.72%
Max Increase 10.94% 14.20% 29.46% 15.77% 17.33% 41.01% 42.10% 56.06% 32.50% 20.75% 10.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase 19 16 17 19 14 14 16 15 15 10 6
Avg Max Decline -0.92% -1.23% -0.88% -1.04% -1.35% -1.57% -1.33% -2.11% -0.93% -1.26% -0.54%
Max Decline -2.62% -4.56% -3.84% -2.85% -5.14% -7.29% -6.25% -5.50% -5.72% -6.60% -2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 6 5 2 2
2003 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes   Yes     Yes
Action       No   Yes   No     Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 33 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45
Closed Lower 16 23 22 22 22 17 26 22 27 29 22
Penetrated Low 11 16 17 21 16 15 23 20 22 21 12
Scenario Percentage 69% 70% 77% 95% 73% 88% 88% 91% 81% 72% 55%
Avg Max Decline 4.30% 5.76% 4.13% 4.58% 4.29% 6.10% 7.88% 8.80% 11.14% 6.16% 11.40%
Max Decline 8.01% 22.45% 20.47% 17.92% 9.56% 12.01% 18.83% 23.82% 19.93% 14.83% 57.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 13 17 16 14 15 22 22 16 10 10
Avg Max Increase -1.42% -1.18% -1.23% -1.48% -2.35% -2.05% -2.62% -3.30% -1.63% -0.93% -0.98%
Max Increase -6.50% -4.22% -3.85% -4.19% -9.03% -5.91% -10.51% -15.97% -10.12% -4.08% -3.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 7 7 9 8 8 12 9 4 3 4
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes  
Action Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes Not Yet  
High 258.75 250.00 246.00 248.50 247.50 243.25 245.50 254.00 245.75 225.75 234.50
Low 248.25 242.00 239.25 236.00 235.25 229.00 230.25 230.50 223.50 204.50 206.00
Close/Last 249.50 242.75 241.25 243.25 237.00 238.00 231.25 243.00 223.75 206.00 233.25