MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Cotton(NYBOT) as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44
Closed Higher 24 21 23 26 22 26 22 17 18 23 22
Exceeded High 20 17 16 21 17 21 17 15 14 14 8
Scenario Percentage 83% 81% 70% 81% 77% 81% 77% 88% 78% 61% 36%
Avg Max Increase 6.14% 6.21% 9.53% 7.81% 10.29% 7.90% 10.58% 9.75% 7.06% 7.08% 3.80%
Max Increase 20.97% 31.87% 33.85% 31.42% 33.57% 55.24% 49.88% 43.29% 27.00% 19.56% 9.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase 15 22 21 21 17 19 22 18 17 10 5
Avg Max Decline -1.33% -1.71% -1.60% -2.50% -1.40% -1.61% -1.93% -2.65% -1.82% -1.53% -0.60%
Max Decline -5.32% -4.26% -7.08% -10.65% -8.16% -10.75% -6.53% -9.53% -4.95% -5.94% -1.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 9 9 13 6 8 8 7 10 5 1
2004 Contract Condition   Yes           Yes      
Action   No           Yes      
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44
Closed Lower 19 21 20 17 20 17 21 25 26 20 22
Penetrated Low 15 17 13 12 17 15 17 16 19 12 15
Scenario Percentage 79% 81% 65% 71% 85% 88% 81% 64% 73% 60% 68%
Avg Max Decline 6.50% 5.28% 6.42% 6.19% 6.10% 7.57% 7.11% 8.30% 6.90% 5.53% 14.34%
Max Decline 20.96% 19.97% 16.87% 17.85% 14.55% 19.05% 14.97% 27.64% 20.33% 11.88% 47.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 17 21 17 17 15 17 19 19 12 9
Avg Max Increase -1.42% -2.35% -2.81% -2.14% -1.59% -2.35% -1.09% -1.64% -2.92% -1.40% -1.42%
Max Increase -5.15% -9.20% -7.51% -12.82% -8.21% -10.03% -3.29% -4.99% -7.69% -3.51% -7.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 10 13 7 9 14 5 9 11 7 3
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
High 69.96 69.10 69.00 67.60 64.30 59.40 52.30 54.44 56.00 48.90 44.90
Low 65.60 64.20 62.90 59.10 58.00 50.40 43.50 42.60 46.25 43.75 43.55
Close/Last 68.10 68.64 66.41 61.73 59.02 51.36 44.40 54.36 46.35 44.98 43.98