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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Cotton(NYBOT) as of Dec 30, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 23 26 23 23 22 24 22 24 18 19 17
Exceeded High 20 20 18 18 16 19 16 17 14 13 8
Scenario Percentage 87% 77% 78% 78% 73% 79% 73% 71% 78% 68% 47%
Avg Max Increase 7.20% 6.94% 6.92% 6.58% 9.37% 8.31% 11.41% 9.30% 9.54% 8.37% 2.13%
Max Increase 23.70% 12.97% 18.44% 31.32% 34.36% 34.82% 36.97% 63.47% 56.45% 35.35% 3.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase 21 20 16 21 20 19 16 17 19 12 4
Avg Max Decline -1.05% -1.74% -1.38% -1.60% -1.51% -2.70% -1.62% -1.22% -2.03% -3.24% -0.33%
Max Decline -3.41% -10.06% -3.19% -6.26% -8.64% -10.73% -7.03% -6.17% -5.63% -8.58% -1.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 9 8 7 10 12 7 9 8 8 2
2004 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes           Yes  
Action   Yes   No           Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 20 17 21 20 21 20 22 19 25 25 27
Penetrated Low 18 14 17 15 17 12 16 17 23 19 16
Scenario Percentage 90% 82% 81% 75% 81% 60% 73% 89% 92% 76% 59%
Avg Max Decline 4.65% 5.12% 6.66% 6.42% 6.88% 9.24% 9.38% 9.73% 6.96% 5.80% 11.61%
Max Decline 10.02% 14.66% 23.26% 20.32% 19.03% 18.49% 27.01% 17.97% 17.17% 15.92% 28.61%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 20 17 19 19 19 18 16 18 13 8
Avg Max Increase -1.05% -1.55% -2.15% -2.54% -2.13% -3.01% -2.05% -2.33% -1.23% -2.38% -1.10%
Max Increase -4.37% -7.65% -7.79% -8.68% -7.51% -13.52% -9.72% -8.87% -5.02% -7.57% -4.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 13 13 15 14 6 9 10 6 8 3
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action No   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet
High 69.50 68.25 69.40 68.50 68.00 66.55 64.40 60.40 52.40 53.90 55.20
Low 62.05 63.95 65.70 63.20 62.10 58.73 58.00 50.20 43.50 42.00 47.50
Close/Last 65.08 67.90 67.55 67.90 65.40 61.00 59.60 51.20 43.83 53.80 48.10