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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Cotton(NYBOT) as of Nov 14, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Higher 22 24 22 21 22 24 22 23 18 17 16
Exceeded High 19 18 17 17 16 19 16 16 14 11 8
Scenario Percentage 86% 75% 77% 81% 73% 79% 73% 70% 78% 65% 50%
Avg Max Increase 7.21% 7.25% 7.17% 6.75% 9.37% 8.31% 11.41% 9.57% 9.54% 8.14% 2.09%
Max Increase 23.70% 12.97% 18.44% 31.32% 34.36% 34.82% 36.97% 63.47% 56.45% 35.35% 3.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 20 17 21 20 19 16 18 19 14 4
Avg Max Decline -0.98% -1.85% -1.27% -1.50% -1.51% -2.70% -1.62% -1.31% -2.03% -3.62% -0.25%
Max Decline -3.41% -10.06% -2.89% -6.26% -8.64% -10.73% -7.03% -6.17% -5.63% -8.58% -1.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 9 8 6 10 12 7 10 8 9 2
2002 Contract Condition Yes       Yes   Yes Yes      
Action No       No   Yes Yes      
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Lower 19 17 20 20 19 18 20 18 23 25 26
Penetrated Low 18 14 16 15 15 10 14 16 21 19 16
Scenario Percentage 95% 82% 80% 75% 79% 56% 70% 89% 91% 76% 62%
Avg Max Decline 4.65% 5.12% 6.58% 6.42% 6.30% 8.18% 8.48% 9.22% 7.20% 6.06% 11.90%
Max Decline 10.02% 14.66% 23.26% 20.32% 19.03% 18.49% 15.70% 17.84% 17.17% 19.61% 28.61%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 20 18 19 19 19 19 16 19 12 8
Avg Max Increase -1.05% -1.55% -2.20% -2.54% -2.04% -2.92% -2.26% -2.33% -1.08% -2.38% -1.32%
Max Increase -4.37% -7.65% -7.79% -8.68% -7.51% -13.52% -9.72% -8.87% -5.02% -7.57% -4.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 13 12 15 15 7 10 11 6 8 4
2002 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes
High 43.45 42.80 43.00 43.60 43.20 42.25 41.65 48.00 48.20 47.35 44.50
Low 35.30 39.55 40.23 39.00 39.60 36.80 35.20 40.65 43.20 42.80 41.05
Close/Last 43.45 40.50 40.45 39.75 41.70 37.33 41.60 47.96 46.95 44.66 42.40