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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 29, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 34 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 19 16 20 21 22 21 20 24 17 21 18
Exceeded High 13 13 12 12 16 17 15 22 14 14 12
Scenario Percentage 68% 81% 60% 57% 73% 81% 75% 92% 82% 67% 67%
Avg Max Increase 6.06% 6.27% 5.71% 7.25% 6.59% 7.03% 6.84% 6.25% 11.00% 12.56% 6.15%
Max Increase 10.89% 12.80% 14.23% 15.01% 28.71% 16.78% 26.54% 30.33% 51.63% 60.09% 9.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 14 19 16 15 19 12 13 19 12 8
Avg Max Decline -2.57% -1.91% -1.30% -1.58% -1.02% -1.45% -1.53% -1.65% -1.52% -2.67% 0.00%
Max Decline -9.08% -8.55% -3.62% -6.07% -4.96% -2.94% -3.60% -6.61% -5.03% -10.06% -1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline 14 11 13 10 6 9 7 10 8 5 2
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes      
Action Yes   No     Yes Yes Yes      
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 34 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 15 29 24 24 23 23 24 21 28 24 26
Penetrated Low 10 22 16 17 17 22 15 15 25 20 17
Scenario Percentage 67% 76% 67% 71% 74% 96% 63% 71% 89% 83% 65%
Avg Max Decline 4.29% 5.51% 5.91% 5.87% 4.59% 5.14% 5.02% 6.65% 8.14% 7.31% 7.85%
Max Decline 7.18% 13.65% 17.28% 22.48% 22.89% 18.80% 9.64% 11.48% 20.84% 22.44% 35.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline 14 20 16 13 17 17 16 15 22 12 12
Avg Max Increase -1.92% -1.86% -1.18% -1.13% -1.48% -1.62% -1.91% -1.95% -2.79% -1.87% -1.76%
Max Increase -4.02% -4.53% -6.15% -2.76% -4.29% -3.97% -4.43% -5.07% -12.00% -9.22% -12.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 11 6 6 9 9 7 10 11 5 4
2004 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes   Yes No       Yes Yes Yes
High 253.50 255.50 260.00 256.50 258.25 288.50 307.50 327.50 342.00 326.50 327.50
Low 232.50 237.00 227.75 241.50 237.50 252.25 276.50 294.75 303.00 287.50 254.50
Close/Last 250.50 237.25 256.75 253.00 250.75 283.75 305.75 325.50 321.50 304.00 257.50