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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 08, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 32 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher 17 16 19 21 22 20 19 22 17 20 18
Exceeded High 11 13 12 12 16 16 14 20 14 14 12
Scenario Percentage 65% 81% 63% 57% 73% 80% 74% 91% 82% 70% 67%
Avg Max Increase 6.12% 6.27% 5.71% 7.25% 6.59% 6.50% 6.49% 6.16% 11.00% 12.56% 6.15%
Max Increase 10.89% 12.80% 14.23% 15.01% 28.71% 16.78% 26.54% 30.33% 51.63% 60.09% 9.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase 13 14 19 16 15 19 13 14 19 12 8
Avg Max Decline -2.31% -1.91% -1.30% -1.58% -1.02% -1.38% -1.38% -1.69% -1.52% -2.67% 0.00%
Max Decline -4.98% -8.55% -3.62% -6.07% -4.96% -2.94% -3.27% -6.61% -5.03% -10.06% -1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline 12 11 13 10 6 9 7 10 8 5 2
2003 Contract Condition Yes             Yes   Yes  
Action Yes             Yes   Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 32 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower 15 27 23 22 21 23 23 21 26 23 24
Penetrated Low 10 20 15 15 16 22 14 15 23 19 15
Scenario Percentage 67% 74% 65% 68% 76% 96% 61% 71% 88% 83% 63%
Avg Max Decline 4.29% 5.49% 5.89% 5.95% 4.66% 5.14% 5.13% 6.65% 7.88% 6.58% 8.27%
Max Decline 7.18% 13.65% 17.28% 22.48% 22.89% 18.80% 9.64% 11.48% 19.61% 22.44% 35.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline 14 21 16 13 17 17 16 15 21 12 13
Avg Max Increase -1.92% -1.83% -1.24% -0.96% -1.34% -1.62% -1.83% -1.95% -2.43% -1.57% -1.88%
Max Increase -4.02% -4.53% -6.15% -2.46% -4.29% -3.97% -4.43% -5.07% -11.31% -9.22% -12.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 11 7 4 9 9 7 10 10 5 4
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes
High 292.00 297.25 271.50 256.75 249.50 251.75 247.25 242.75 246.50 259.00 248.25
Low 265.00 262.50 254.00 244.50 240.00 234.25 234.50 227.25 229.50 230.25 228.00
Close/Last 276.00 264.00 256.00 245.00 243.00 243.00 235.50 237.00 231.25 244.25 228.50