MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Crude Oil(NYM) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	16	19	20	22	22	22	23	23	23	23	23
Closed Higher	5	7	9	12	12	16	15	13	10	16	15
Exceeded High	3	5	9	10	11	14	13	8	10	15	10
Scenario Percentage	60%	71%	100%	83%	92%	88%	87%	62%	100%	94%	67%
Avg Max Increase	7.19%	10.39%	9.77%	11.39%	10.66%	8.71%	8.07%	11.01%	11.51%	13.13%	9.55%
Max Increase	11.14%	15.18%	19.73%	23.95%	23.22%	20.61%	21.28%	19.06%	21.40%	59.28%	23.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	14	18	18	16	17	17	21	17	12	12
Avg Max Decline	-1.22%	-1.11%	-0.92%	-1.48%	-0.16%	-3.23%	-2.35%	-2.39%	-2.21%	-0.84%	-0.34%
Max Decline	-1.78%	-4.39%	-4.41%	-4.34%	-2.78%	-10.86%	-7.80%	-8.24%	-10.10%	-4.55%	-4.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	3	10	8	9	11	11	10	9	3	2
2006 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	16	19	20	22	22	22	23	23	23	23	23
Closed Lower	10	12	11	9	10	6	8	10	13	7	8
Penetrated Low	9	11	7	5	6	4	5	8	9	4	5
Scenario Percentage	90%	92%	64%	56%	60%	67%	63%	80%	69%	57%	63%
Avg Max Decline	9.63%	11.64%	13.47%	16.64%	8.43%	6.17%	6.28%	9.20%	8.18%	6.20%	14.51%
Max Decline	18.89%	24.11%	35.26%	40.71%	27.42%	9.20%	11.56%	15.23%	20.16%	10.69%	42.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	19	19	22	12	10	20	14	16	7	15
Avg Max Increase	-1.60%	-0.79%	-1.67%	-1.24%	-2.35%	-2.17%	-3.62%	-1.50%	-1.92%	-1.91%	-2.65%
Max Increase	-4.02%	-2.90%	-6.24%	-4.21%	-8.35%	-6.97%	-8.32%	-5.26%	-7.44%	-4.90%	-8.74%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	7	12	3	7	6	14	4	7	8	6
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	No			No
High	65.77	63.51	64.34	70.70	71.20	69.71	77.30	76.70
Low	59.89	58.95	60.62	64.65	62.96	64.50	69.00	75.50
Close/Last	61.24	60.00	63.81	70.53	66.28	69.47	75.08	76.70