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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 15 17 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 21
Closed Higher 9 7 7 8 11 10 14 14 10 9 15
Exceeded High 7 4 5 8 10 9 12 12 7 9 13
Scenario Percentage 78% 57% 71% 100% 91% 90% 86% 86% 70% 100% 87%
Avg Max Increase 4.40% 7.58% 11.73% 9.70% 10.20% 10.60% 8.67% 8.18% 9.40% 9.84% 8.86%
Max Increase 9.68% 14.18% 17.87% 20.30% 24.34% 25.29% 14.80% 23.43% 15.32% 16.17% 40.41%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 28 13 19 20 16 16 17 23 9 10
Avg Max Decline -1.12% -3.41% -1.15% -1.92% -2.89% -0.07% -3.73% -2.73% -2.77% -2.32% -0.49%
Max Decline -5.19% -9.17% -4.14% -4.71% -10.21% -3.51% -11.27% -8.44% -7.09% -12.43% -3.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline 3 18 4 8 11 7 12 10 10 14 1
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 15 17 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 21
Closed Lower 6 10 11 10 9 10 6 7 11 12 6
Penetrated Low 5 9 10 7 5 6 4 4 8 9 3
Scenario Percentage 83% 90% 91% 70% 56% 60% 67% 57% 73% 75% 50%
Avg Max Decline 8.75% 10.19% 12.00% 14.46% 17.76% 8.72% 6.81% 7.06% 11.30% 8.37% 19.37%
Max Decline 18.10% 19.55% 25.01% 37.89% 41.53% 27.40% 10.50% 13.57% 18.42% 20.16% 43.60%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 17 18 20 19 12 16 20 14 16 13
Avg Max Increase -1.62% -2.26% -1.03% -1.85% -0.97% -2.74% -2.81% -4.45% -1.18% -2.31% -6.81%
Max Increase -4.17% -4.64% -2.63% -5.94% -4.37% -10.12% -8.52% -9.34% -3.66% -7.70% -19.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 11 5 12 3 7 6 16 5 7 7
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes         Yes Yes      
Action Yes Yes         Yes No      
High 26.10 25.54 24.66 26.50 28.66 30.55 31.57 27.35 27.90 30.20 31.37
Low 24.86 24.15 23.25 24.48 25.60 28.27 25.30 24.80 24.95 27.65 29.18
Close/Last 25.11 24.49 24.66 25.67 28.53 30.18 27.24 25.14 27.75 29.77 30.54