MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		29	31	33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	35
Closed Higher		16	19	19	15	14	15	15	18	21	22	21
Exceeded High		15	17	14	14	9	13	15	17	18	21	15
Scenario Percentage		94%	89%	74%	93%	64%	87%	100%	94%	86%	95%	71%
Avg Max Increase		7.74%	8.94%	10.74%	7.01%	9.72%	11.87%	9.74%	11.56%	12.21%	11.12%	7.58%
Max Increase		19.13%	43.12%	30.49%	22.29%	16.58%	23.16%	24.05%	31.02%	29.08%	27.52%	28.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	20	16	13	23	15	17	15	17	12	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.94%	-1.46%	-1.90%	-2.38%	-3.01%	-2.34%	-2.80%	-3.09%	-2.53%	-3.32%	-1.87%
Max Decline		-12.23%	-8.47%	-6.96%	-11.29%	-8.76%	-8.80%	-9.65%	-11.76%	-14.69%	-10.69%	-6.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	10	8	4	10	5	10	8	8	6	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		29	31	33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	35
Closed Lower		13	12	14	18	19	18	19	16	13	12	14
Penetrated Low		10	8	8	15	18	15	13	8	6	9	7
Scenario Percentage		77%	67%	57%	83%	95%	83%	68%	50%	46%	75%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.84%	12.20%	15.45%	12.08%	11.75%	16.58%	16.34%	17.37%	10.66%	12.01%	7.88%
Max Decline		30.84%	26.05%	44.79%	47.55%	40.74%	33.14%	42.29%	44.01%	28.16%	21.58%	18.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	16	18	20	19	18	16	12	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-0.65%	-2.58%	-1.73%	-2.91%	-2.72%	-2.39%	-3.90%	-3.31%	-4.75%	-3.06%	-2.00%
Max Increase		-3.75%	-10.14%	-11.15%	-14.59%	-7.31%	-12.88%	-12.23%	-11.81%	-11.53%	-9.41%	-6.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	11	8	10	7	11	8	7	15	8	3
2017 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
High	52.35	54.00	53.40	52.79	51.80	54.50	53.12	57.35	57.95	55.88	55.18	54.14
Low	46.61	49.18	45.44	44.53	46.94	49.66	46.25	52.29	53.75	52.86	47.58	48.20
Close/Last	51.54	52.18	46.51	48.54	51.41	49.89	52.73	56.49	54.38	54.75	51.07	49.33