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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of Feb 28, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
18 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
| Closed Higher |
8 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
15 |
| Exceeded High |
8 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
11 |
16 |
10 |
| Scenario Percentage |
100% |
92% |
80% |
92% |
70% |
78% |
100% |
93% |
85% |
100% |
67% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.92% |
10.00% |
11.14% |
5.66% |
9.88% |
16.09% |
11.12% |
12.22% |
13.78% |
11.22% |
8.46% |
| Max Increase |
19.05% |
43.12% |
30.49% |
15.35% |
16.58% |
23.16% |
24.05% |
31.02% |
29.08% |
27.52% |
28.94% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
24 |
22 |
16 |
13 |
23 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.31% |
-1.13% |
-1.78% |
-2.57% |
-2.61% |
-1.25% |
-1.78% |
-3.02% |
-1.06% |
-3.06% |
-1.35% |
| Max Decline |
-3.93% |
-3.41% |
-6.96% |
-11.29% |
-8.76% |
-3.32% |
-7.76% |
-11.76% |
-4.85% |
-10.69% |
-6.38% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
2 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Not Yet |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
18 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
| Closed Lower |
10 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
| Penetrated Low |
7 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
70% |
43% |
43% |
80% |
92% |
77% |
62% |
50% |
50% |
100% |
78% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.81% |
7.48% |
8.02% |
9.67% |
10.98% |
15.08% |
14.65% |
23.19% |
11.29% |
11.63% |
17.91% |
| Max Decline |
10.23% |
12.07% |
17.33% |
22.33% |
22.50% |
28.51% |
42.29% |
44.01% |
28.16% |
21.58% |
51.23% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
17 |
21 |
10 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.63% |
-4.64% |
-4.71% |
-3.46% |
-2.42% |
-1.30% |
-3.38% |
-0.28% |
-4.58% |
-2.45% |
-6.09% |
| Max Increase |
-2.43% |
-10.14% |
-11.15% |
-14.59% |
-5.92% |
-4.48% |
-8.76% |
-1.14% |
-11.53% |
-9.41% |
-18.41% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
4 |
25 |
14 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
12 |
7 |
7 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
|
| High |
76.40 |
80.45 |
80.90 |
73.97 |
66.85 |
67.75 |
67.99 |
64.20 |
64.10 |
|
|
| Low |
71.80 |
76.40 |
73.70 |
64.50 |
63.60 |
63.30 |
63.72 |
53.25 |
58.55 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
76.32 |
78.42 |
74.99 |
67.83 |
64.85 |
67.41 |
64.54 |
60.14 |
63.97 |
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