MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jun 09, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	16	18	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21	22
Closed Higher	7	11	13	11	9	9	9	13	12	14	14
Exceeded High	7	10	11	10	7	7	9	12	10	14	10
Scenario Percentage	100%	91%	85%	91%	78%	78%	100%	92%	83%	100%	71%
Avg Max Increase	7.47%	9.38%	9.42%	4.86%	9.88%	16.09%	10.98%	12.36%	13.88%	11.47%	8.12%
Max Increase	10.56%	43.12%	30.49%	15.35%	16.58%	23.16%	24.05%	31.02%	29.08%	24.43%	28.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase	23	20	16	11	23	16	18	18	17	13	12
Avg Max Decline	-1.42%	-1.28%	-2.01%	-2.79%	-2.61%	-1.25%	-2.14%	-2.92%	-1.00%	-3.39%	-1.35%
Max Decline	-3.93%	-3.41%	-6.96%	-11.29%	-8.76%	-3.32%	-7.76%	-11.76%	-4.85%	-10.69%	-6.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	14	9	4	8	3	10	9	7	6	2
2004 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	16	18	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21	22
Closed Lower	9	7	7	9	11	11	12	8	9	7	8
Penetrated Low	7	3	3	7	10	9	8	4	5	7	6
Scenario Percentage	78%	43%	43%	78%	91%	82%	67%	50%	56%	100%	75%
Avg Max Decline	4.81%	7.48%	8.02%	9.17%	11.58%	15.10%	14.65%	23.19%	11.29%	11.50%	12.22%
Max Decline	10.23%	12.07%	17.33%	22.33%	22.50%	28.51%	42.29%	44.01%	28.16%	21.58%	33.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	21	10	18	19	19	19	17	11	13	14
Avg Max Increase	-0.63%	-4.64%	-4.71%	-3.96%	-2.30%	-1.50%	-3.38%	-0.28%	-4.58%	-2.45%	-5.97%
Max Increase	-2.43%	-10.14%	-11.15%	-14.59%	-5.92%	-4.48%	-8.76%	-1.14%	-11.53%	-9.41%	-18.41%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	25	14	15	8	11	10	7	12	7	7
2004 Contract Condition				Yes
Action				No
High	26.21	27.12	28.05	27.50	29.30	30.30	31.45	33.25	34.50	36.85	38.18
Low	24.85	26.05	27.00	25.80	26.90	27.08	28.25	30.75	30.40	34.00	32.75
Close/Last	26.21	26.94	27.73	26.88	27.45	28.68	30.79	30.98	34.42	35.08	37.38