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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 16, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 16 17 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20
Closed Higher 8 6 10 13 12 8 8 8 12 11 13
Exceeded High 5 6 9 12 10 6 6 8 11 9 11
Scenario Percentage 63% 100% 90% 92% 83% 75% 75% 100% 92% 82% 85%
Avg Max Increase 6.26% 7.91% 10.82% 8.84% 4.95% 9.73% 17.32% 11.89% 13.17% 17.96% 10.73%
Max Increase 10.37% 10.33% 47.75% 33.91% 13.37% 17.51% 24.18% 27.19% 32.58% 43.26% 25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 23 21 14 12 24 15 16 18 14 16
Avg Max Decline -2.57% -1.29% -1.21% -1.20% -3.03% -2.89% -1.18% -2.45% -3.24% -0.66% -1.95%
Max Decline -7.04% -3.57% -3.12% -5.31% -11.42% -9.01% -3.03% -8.70% -12.77% -2.96% -6.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 5 11 5 5 10 4 8 12 4 4
2003 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes No   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 16 17 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20
Closed Lower 8 11 8 6 7 11 12 12 8 9 7
Penetrated Low 6 9 3 3 6 10 10 8 4 5 6
Scenario Percentage 75% 82% 38% 50% 86% 91% 83% 67% 50% 56% 86%
Avg Max Decline 7.53% 5.97% 7.72% 7.39% 9.24% 12.23% 14.85% 15.50% 24.72% 11.70% 22.17%
Max Decline 10.52% 16.54% 12.13% 17.69% 23.43% 23.84% 31.02% 44.68% 45.53% 28.26% 41.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 17 21 13 19 18 18 20 19 12 8
Avg Max Increase -0.04% -1.22% -4.67% -4.04% -4.36% -2.52% -1.36% -3.51% -0.54% -4.89% -4.27%
Max Increase -2.07% -6.60% -11.04% -11.54% -13.79% -7.53% -4.96% -9.68% -1.76% -11.53% -10.46%
Avg Days to Max Increase 2 5 25 15 15 10 10 13 7 11 10
2003 Contract Condition Yes   Yes     Yes         Yes
Action No   No     Yes         Yes
High 25.60 25.00 25.65 26.83 27.50 27.30 25.86 30.03 32.05 36.25 36.65
Low 23.55 23.78 24.57 24.68 26.12 25.20 23.55 25.55 28.00 31.25 26.30
Close/Last 23.95 24.96 24.94 26.80 27.05 25.57 25.81 28.50 31.80 34.83 31.04