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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
19 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Higher |
13 |
11 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
11 |
| Exceeded High |
11 |
6 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
85% |
55% |
100% |
85% |
87% |
85% |
70% |
80% |
100% |
86% |
73% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.08% |
7.21% |
7.97% |
11.64% |
11.64% |
6.42% |
11.52% |
16.43% |
13.21% |
13.99% |
12.24% |
| Max Increase |
13.72% |
11.87% |
11.05% |
52.11% |
37.03% |
15.32% |
19.04% |
26.67% |
35.74% |
27.99% |
27.73% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
14 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
14 |
23 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.52% |
-1.17% |
-1.28% |
-0.98% |
-1.58% |
-2.65% |
-2.55% |
-1.94% |
-2.30% |
-3.79% |
-0.68% |
| Max Decline |
-4.57% |
-4.14% |
-4.03% |
-3.18% |
-8.69% |
-12.12% |
-8.10% |
-7.02% |
-9.80% |
-13.62% |
-2.64% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
11 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
4 |
9 |
4 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
19 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Lower |
6 |
8 |
13 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
8 |
11 |
| Penetrated Low |
4 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
67% |
75% |
77% |
38% |
33% |
67% |
91% |
83% |
58% |
50% |
73% |
| Avg Max Decline |
5.03% |
7.74% |
6.40% |
8.23% |
10.91% |
9.19% |
13.00% |
14.03% |
17.46% |
24.26% |
17.23% |
| Max Decline |
10.16% |
10.27% |
18.10% |
12.81% |
18.05% |
24.67% |
24.93% |
34.10% |
48.16% |
38.98% |
50.68% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
20 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
13 |
12 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
14 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-2.77% |
0.05% |
-1.26% |
-5.21% |
-6.54% |
-1.62% |
-2.69% |
-1.40% |
-3.22% |
-0.89% |
-3.77% |
| Max Increase |
-6.17% |
-1.96% |
-6.61% |
-11.96% |
-12.63% |
-5.36% |
-8.69% |
-6.70% |
-9.72% |
-2.91% |
-11.58% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
17 |
2 |
5 |
25 |
12 |
6 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
7 |
7 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
Not Yet |
|
| High |
26.53 |
27.11 |
27.45 |
26.14 |
26.20 |
27.80 |
23.86 |
22.42 |
21.64 |
22.30 |
22.10 |
| Low |
24.43 |
26.17 |
25.07 |
24.24 |
24.77 |
21.65 |
21.45 |
17.95 |
18.80 |
18.93 |
19.52 |
| Close/Last |
26.47 |
26.59 |
25.43 |
24.83 |
26.17 |
23.83 |
21.57 |
19.99 |
20.27 |
19.81 |
21.74 |
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