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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Oct 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
| Tested Years |
20 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
| Closed Higher |
14 |
14 |
12 |
9 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
16 |
| Exceeded High |
13 |
12 |
7 |
9 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
93% |
86% |
58% |
100% |
87% |
88% |
87% |
64% |
80% |
100% |
50% |
| Avg Max Increase |
7.98% |
5.86% |
9.26% |
9.75% |
12.59% |
11.61% |
6.44% |
12.81% |
18.13% |
10.87% |
7.56% |
| Max Increase |
17.96% |
13.68% |
20.21% |
18.93% |
57.94% |
40.70% |
14.62% |
22.62% |
28.59% |
22.83% |
11.76% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
15 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
14 |
13 |
24 |
17 |
12 |
11 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.69% |
-1.91% |
-0.82% |
-1.29% |
-1.00% |
-1.77% |
-2.54% |
-2.64% |
-2.17% |
-1.30% |
-0.95% |
| Max Decline |
-9.61% |
-4.73% |
-4.51% |
-4.19% |
-3.49% |
-10.27% |
-12.15% |
-7.76% |
-7.84% |
-4.92% |
-2.57% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
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Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
| Tested Years |
20 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
| Closed Lower |
5 |
7 |
9 |
13 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
7 |
| Penetrated Low |
2 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
11 |
10 |
7 |
5 |
| Scenario Percentage |
40% |
71% |
67% |
69% |
43% |
67% |
75% |
92% |
77% |
64% |
71% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.77% |
4.94% |
7.94% |
6.75% |
9.01% |
6.70% |
10.01% |
12.11% |
14.61% |
16.27% |
19.19% |
| Max Decline |
5.41% |
9.86% |
11.14% |
17.71% |
13.70% |
18.73% |
26.45% |
25.80% |
36.34% |
43.46% |
27.58% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
6 |
19 |
12 |
16 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-3.59% |
-2.64% |
-0.06% |
-1.33% |
-5.57% |
-4.60% |
-1.54% |
-2.24% |
-1.87% |
-4.28% |
-3.19% |
| Max Increase |
-6.17% |
-6.41% |
-1.91% |
-5.99% |
-12.86% |
-13.48% |
-5.76% |
-4.51% |
-8.32% |
-12.69% |
-8.68% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
1 |
10 |
2 |
3 |
25 |
20 |
8 |
6 |
11 |
15 |
8 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Not Yet |
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| High |
70.03 |
76.91 |
77.43 |
76.52 |
80.36 |
80.62 |
73.50 |
66.10 |
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| Low |
65.35 |
69.79 |
72.45 |
71.90 |
76.50 |
72.95 |
63.10 |
61.65 |
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| Close/Last |
69.84 |
75.43 |
74.39 |
76.52 |
78.10 |
74.08 |
66.47 |
62.90 |
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