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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| Tested Years |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Higher |
10 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
8 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
| Exceeded High |
9 |
12 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
| Scenario Percentage |
90% |
92% |
86% |
58% |
100% |
93% |
86% |
79% |
64% |
80% |
91% |
| Avg Max Increase |
9.43% |
8.56% |
7.21% |
8.57% |
9.17% |
12.02% |
11.89% |
6.65% |
14.07% |
20.23% |
10.61% |
| Max Increase |
17.47% |
17.48% |
16.61% |
13.74% |
13.88% |
63.08% |
43.64% |
14.16% |
27.15% |
31.79% |
16.99% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
14 |
18 |
15 |
23 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
13 |
24 |
15 |
13 |
| Avg Max Decline |
0.45% |
-3.01% |
-1.42% |
-1.21% |
-1.49% |
-0.93% |
-2.09% |
-3.04% |
-2.58% |
-2.18% |
-1.53% |
| Max Decline |
-1.67% |
-9.77% |
-4.95% |
-5.01% |
-4.91% |
-3.70% |
-11.63% |
-12.01% |
-7.14% |
-8.61% |
-6.17% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
9 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| Tested Years |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Lower |
8 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
| Penetrated Low |
4 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
50% |
60% |
50% |
78% |
69% |
43% |
71% |
63% |
91% |
83% |
73% |
| Avg Max Decline |
10.94% |
5.23% |
6.50% |
7.49% |
6.97% |
10.23% |
6.83% |
9.73% |
13.44% |
14.82% |
23.83% |
| Max Decline |
27.66% |
6.22% |
9.41% |
11.60% |
18.10% |
16.37% |
19.56% |
27.43% |
27.36% |
41.06% |
50.11% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
13 |
19 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
14 |
13 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-2.19% |
-2.43% |
-2.44% |
-0.99% |
-1.73% |
-6.15% |
-4.21% |
-1.86% |
-2.35% |
-2.37% |
-6.74% |
| Max Increase |
-7.60% |
-6.19% |
-6.65% |
-6.17% |
-6.01% |
-14.94% |
-14.44% |
-5.75% |
-5.31% |
-10.68% |
-20.90% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
4 |
25 |
16 |
8 |
7 |
12 |
8 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
| High |
26.60 |
26.71 |
27.15 |
27.74 |
27.95 |
26.58 |
26.85 |
29.00 |
24.30 |
22.60 |
21.43 |
| Low |
24.70 |
24.82 |
24.78 |
26.70 |
25.25 |
24.53 |
25.17 |
21.10 |
21.17 |
17.30 |
18.20 |
| Close/Last |
25.20 |
25.41 |
27.03 |
27.14 |
25.77 |
25.23 |
26.74 |
23.84 |
21.46 |
19.64 |
19.84 |
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