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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 16 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
Closed Higher 5 9 14 13 11 8 13 14 13 9 10
Exceeded High 5 8 13 11 5 8 12 12 10 6 6
Scenario Percentage 100% 89% 93% 85% 45% 100% 92% 86% 77% 67% 60%
Avg Max Increase 9.02% 9.55% 7.51% 6.80% 9.43% 9.70% 13.02% 12.59% 6.36% 12.01% 11.56%
Max Increase 15.49% 19.42% 12.26% 17.55% 13.76% 15.28% 68.88% 46.36% 14.80% 24.26% 16.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 13 18 17 26 20 18 17 11 16 17
Avg Max Decline -1.07% 0.46% -2.91% -1.87% -0.64% -1.63% -0.71% -2.27% -4.30% -2.41% -1.06%
Max Decline -4.10% -1.96% -9.96% -5.44% -3.75% -5.74% -3.86% -13.14% -13.15% -5.97% -2.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 6 12 12 6 11 8 7 5 9 4
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 16 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21
Closed Lower 10 10 5 7 9 12 8 7 7 12 11
Penetrated Low 5 5 2 4 6 9 4 5 5 11 9
Scenario Percentage 50% 50% 40% 57% 67% 75% 50% 71% 71% 92% 82%
Avg Max Decline 15.27% 8.49% 7.15% 5.42% 8.59% 7.25% 9.17% 7.38% 10.15% 12.63% 9.17%
Max Decline 38.95% 24.21% 7.95% 8.93% 12.43% 18.49% 17.81% 20.05% 27.95% 27.10% 19.50%
Avg Days To Max Decline 22 19 20 20 14 18 17 14 15 13 11
Avg Max Increase -0.74% -2.61% -0.59% -3.07% -0.09% -1.36% -4.88% -5.59% -2.37% -2.28% -2.01%
Max Increase -3.67% -8.74% -1.45% -6.90% -2.05% -6.35% -15.61% -16.04% -7.95% -5.77% -7.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase 3 9 10 10 2 4 19 20 9 5 4
2004 Contract Condition     Yes Yes         Yes    
Action     Yes No         No    
High 27.05 28.57 29.46 26.04 26.50 27.96 29.05 30.75 30.08 32.02 32.85
Low 24.40 26.79 24.64 24.45 24.65 26.34 27.75 29.07 26.30 28.10 28.35
Close/Last 26.87 28.10 26.11 24.69 26.30 27.96 28.85 30.28 28.48 28.85 30.41