MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Canadian Dollar(CME) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	23	26	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher	10	9	13	17	11	17	12	15	17	12	11
Exceeded High	9	9	10	14	7	10	8	13	13	10	9
Scenario Percentage	90%	100%	77%	82%	64%	59%	67%	87%	76%	83%	82%
Avg Max Increase	2.39%	1.91%	2.69%	1.89%	1.55%	1.74%	2.10%	1.93%	1.85%	1.17%	0.73%
Max Increase	3.89%	3.87%	9.67%	7.69%	2.57%	3.83%	4.04%	6.63%	4.51%	2.38%	1.77%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	17	13	18	15	19	21	18	16	9	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.51%	-0.56%	-0.42%	-0.45%	-0.66%	-0.41%	-0.36%	-0.58%	-0.36%	-0.43%	-0.30%
Max Decline	-1.74%	-2.52%	-1.39%	-1.85%	-1.64%	-1.77%	-0.78%	-2.54%	-2.02%	-2.18%	-1.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	7	7	9	5	8	8	5	10	3	3
2003 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	23	26	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower	12	17	13	9	15	9	15	12	9	14	16
Penetrated Low	9	11	9	7	7	5	10	8	9	9	12
Scenario Percentage	75%	65%	69%	78%	47%	56%	67%	67%	100%	64%	75%
Avg Max Decline	3.19%	2.33%	1.76%	1.78%	2.98%	3.13%	1.92%	2.66%	1.64%	1.67%	1.71%
Max Decline	6.46%	4.65%	4.22%	3.35%	4.34%	7.77%	4.92%	5.60%	3.86%	2.71%	6.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	15	15	13	20	19	18	19	15	10	11
Avg Max Increase	-0.20%	-0.24%	-0.22%	-0.11%	-0.27%	-0.53%	-0.26%	-0.66%	-0.76%	-0.22%	-0.18%
Max Increase	-0.70%	-1.66%	-1.08%	-0.40%	-1.24%	-0.97%	-1.19%	-1.82%	-1.49%	-0.82%	-0.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	4	7	1	7	8	8	15	9	4	2
2003 Contract Condition							Yes
Action							No
High	64.86	66.35	67.30	68.90	73.48	74.20	74.20	72.25	74.26	76.60	77.10
Low	62.85	64.37	65.85	66.07	69.25	71.70	70.00	70.25	71.30	73.73	74.44
Close/Last	64.78	66.33	67.00	68.90	72.34	73.40	70.60	71.84	73.77	75.68	77.03