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ScenarioSM Study for September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Dec 30, 2016 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 18 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | |
Closed Higher | 10 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 13 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 10 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 90% | 89% | 70% | 83% | 90% | 77% | 100% | 94% | 94% | 83% | 77% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.61% | 8.59% | 6.59% | 7.03% | 11.30% | 12.66% | 10.86% | 10.73% | 9.92% | 9.57% | 7.20% | |
Max Increase | 28.15% | 19.43% | 11.95% | 17.34% | 21.37% | 24.34% | 27.55% | 24.51% | 37.42% | 16.11% | 11.71% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 21 | 16 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.35% | -0.92% | -1.64% | -1.86% | -2.02% | -2.36% | -2.50% | -3.25% | -2.22% | -2.88% | -1.44% | |
Max Decline | -4.60% | -3.75% | -3.54% | -8.81% | -7.13% | -10.38% | -14.85% | -9.71% | -7.61% | -7.60% | -3.19% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | |
2016 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.