MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		19	23	23	23	25	26	26	27	27	28	28
Closed Higher		8	15	15	12	11	10	13	12	13	18	16
Exceeded High		8	13	13	9	10	6	11	11	12	15	14
Scenario Percentage		100%	87%	87%	75%	91%	60%	85%	92%	92%	83%	88%
Avg Max Increase		9.15%	10.05%	8.51%	11.80%	8.45%	7.04%	9.25%	10.96%	12.65%	12.30%	8.70%
Max Increase		17.73%	25.53%	16.40%	29.40%	20.85%	14.23%	23.40%	23.61%	30.09%	31.91%	17.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	17	13	17	15	17	14	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-0.81%	-1.69%	-0.93%	-1.70%	-1.61%	-2.32%	-2.45%	-3.61%	-2.49%	-2.83%	-1.66%
Max Decline		-2.68%	-12.64%	-8.19%	-6.48%	-7.38%	-3.68%	-9.05%	-13.99%	-11.97%	-16.18%	-7.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	7	11	5	5	7	10	6	8	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		19	23	23	23	25	26	26	27	27	28	28
Closed Lower		11	8	8	11	14	16	13	15	14	10	12
Penetrated Low		5	6	7	8	12	13	10	10	8	4	6
Scenario Percentage		45%	75%	88%	73%	86%	81%	77%	67%	57%	40%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.50%	10.79%	11.00%	14.23%	13.96%	13.89%	17.43%	13.57%	11.51%	9.88%	8.43%
Max Decline		17.56%	29.33%	26.73%	44.80%	47.72%	39.33%	38.98%	27.20%	25.33%	17.04%	14.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	22	14	15	19	18	16	11	20	5
Avg Max Increase		-0.82%	-0.90%	-2.41%	-2.42%	-1.30%	-2.48%	-1.21%	-4.46%	-2.45%	-4.06%	-1.14%
Max Increase		-2.55%	-5.45%	-10.80%	-10.12%	-8.96%	-5.87%	-11.77%	-11.85%	-7.09%	-10.78%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	15	13	4	7	8	10	4	19	1
2017 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes
Action				Yes			Yes			Yes		Not Yet
High	50.89	53.29	54.98	54.30	53.82	52.90	56.19	54.36	59.26	59.89	57.99	57.35
Low	41.93	47.50	50.10	46.18	45.19	48.02	51.14	47.32	53.44	55.17	55.05	50.00
Close/Last	50.10	52.46	52.94	47.17	49.52	52.85	51.33	53.88	58.44	56.21	56.84	53.53