MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September British Pound(CME) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	15	17	20	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	6	6	15	11	15	16	16	12	17	15	16
Exceeded High	5	5	9	9	10	13	11	11	14	9	11
Scenario Percentage	83%	83%	60%	82%	67%	81%	69%	92%	82%	60%	69%
Avg Max Increase	3.78%	5.38%	3.46%	3.19%	4.52%	3.32%	4.24%	6.61%	4.46%	3.47%	2.36%
Max Increase	6.62%	9.04%	7.07%	8.91%	9.44%	6.52%	8.63%	12.65%	13.11%	10.35%	7.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	15	17	14	14	20	25	21	19	10	9
Avg Max Decline	-0.87%	-1.10%	-0.18%	-0.88%	-0.54%	-1.32%	-0.82%	-1.34%	-0.46%	-1.31%	-0.26%
Max Decline	-2.44%	-2.87%	-1.25%	-3.13%	-2.55%	-4.48%	-2.07%	-3.02%	-3.08%	-3.63%	-1.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	5	3	6	4	7	10	7	10	8	4
2006 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	No			No			Yes

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	15	17	20	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	8	11	5	19	15	15	15	19	14	16	15
Penetrated Low	5	5	5	15	11	12	15	14	12	12	10
Scenario Percentage	63%	45%	100%	79%	73%	80%	100%	74%	86%	75%	67%
Avg Max Decline	3.33%	2.78%	6.22%	3.61%	3.98%	4.08%	5.09%	5.22%	3.37%	3.09%	7.81%
Max Decline	6.11%	9.82%	11.58%	7.99%	12.12%	8.21%	11.56%	12.29%	9.00%	6.85%	18.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline	22	17	19	18	19	18	15	16	10	13	14
Avg Max Increase	-1.02%	-1.45%	0.03%	-0.69%	-1.30%	-0.87%	-0.78%	-0.83%	-0.97%	-1.05%	-0.79%
Max Increase	-4.68%	-3.12%	-1.42%	-3.23%	-3.05%	-3.41%	-2.18%	-2.34%	-3.33%	-3.52%	-2.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	11	3	5	12	7	6	3	7	7	6
2006 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No	No		Yes	Not Yet
High	178.47	177.66	177.84	179.40	178.55	176.20	182.65	184.35
Low	174.22	171.61	171.81	174.84	173.99	172.95	174.31	183.11
Close/Last	177.03	173.26	172.22	178.32	175.85	174.06	182.54	183.11