MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	31	27	28	22	20	19	21	18	24	25
Exceeded High		19	29	26	22	17	13	14	15	15	17	11
Scenario Percentage		86%	94%	96%	79%	77%	65%	74%	71%	83%	71%	44%
Avg Max Increase		8.96%	7.66%	10.11%	13.66%	18.95%	23.68%	12.01%	9.13%	11.05%	8.86%	6.95%
Max Increase		34.01%	19.98%	36.60%	42.59%	76.62%	76.98%	54.52%	31.26%	22.27%	15.94%	24.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	16	16	18	15	18	18	17	19	14	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.99%	-1.55%	-2.06%	-2.30%	-2.64%	-1.73%	-4.99%	-2.48%	-3.41%	-1.79%	-0.63%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.13%	-6.20%	-8.20%	-8.54%	-6.99%	-19.47%	-7.72%	-10.63%	-5.25%	-2.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	8	11	5	7	9	9	5	5	2
2017 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			No				Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	14	18	17	23	24	26	24	27	21	20
Penetrated Low		12	10	15	14	22	22	18	18	24	15	11
Scenario Percentage		52%	71%	83%	82%	96%	92%	69%	75%	89%	71%	55%
Avg Max Decline		7.48%	5.23%	5.76%	8.51%	8.25%	10.50%	8.89%	9.74%	8.45%	7.77%	3.62%
Max Decline		21.91%	14.93%	14.12%	14.38%	18.95%	26.61%	26.86%	43.45%	32.91%	16.96%	14.36%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	14	17	19	21	16	15	15	16	14	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.45%	-2.11%	-3.37%	-1.96%	-2.67%	-2.72%	-2.60%	-3.01%	-2.03%	-5.17%	-2.47%
Max Increase		-6.94%	-4.22%	-8.13%	-5.34%	-6.20%	-13.58%	-9.18%	-14.88%	-7.63%	-19.67%	-9.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	12	8	11	7	8	8	4	7	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
High	37.85	36.88	35.42	35.36	32.93	33.90	33.89	35.58	35.49	36.06	35.13	35.44
Low	34.52	33.87	33.07	31.97	31.63	31.66	31.53	32.48	32.94	32.65	32.30	33.44
Close/Last	34.81	34.30	34.56	32.43	32.18	31.91	33.34	35.13	35.06	32.82	34.75	33.75