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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 35 40 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 18 22 28 26 20 19 20 23 20 22 23
Exceeded High 14 20 27 21 15 16 17 16 17 16 11
Scenario Percentage 78% 91% 96% 81% 75% 84% 85% 70% 85% 73% 48%
Avg Max Increase 7.67% 8.63% 9.56% 11.53% 20.73% 21.62% 12.46% 12.53% 14.08% 9.49% 7.06%
Max Increase 16.50% 19.98% 36.60% 42.59% 76.62% 76.98% 54.52% 33.02% 36.63% 18.53% 24.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 17 17 19 18 17 18 21 19 13 7
Avg Max Decline -2.23% -1.32% -1.90% -2.39% -3.08% -1.59% -3.52% -2.39% -2.73% -1.21% -0.72%
Max Decline -6.55% -5.69% -6.20% -8.20% -8.54% -6.99% -19.47% -7.72% -10.63% -5.25% -2.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 6 7 14 7 8 10 8 4 5 2
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes No     Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 35 40 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 17 18 14 17 24 24 24 21 24 21 21
Penetrated Low 10 10 12 13 22 20 17 16 22 15 11
Scenario Percentage 59% 56% 86% 76% 92% 83% 71% 76% 92% 71% 52%
Avg Max Decline 7.71% 5.62% 5.50% 8.13% 7.91% 10.29% 6.78% 7.63% 7.42% 5.85% 14.90%
Max Decline 21.91% 14.93% 11.15% 14.38% 18.04% 26.61% 17.99% 14.92% 22.02% 12.23% 40.14%
Avg Days To Max Decline 10 15 19 19 21 19 16 17 18 15 14
Avg Max Increase -2.29% -1.67% -2.54% -1.72% -2.10% -2.63% -3.14% -3.71% -1.85% -4.35% -2.81%
Max Increase -6.94% -4.22% -6.22% -4.65% -6.12% -13.58% -9.86% -14.88% -7.63% -19.67% -9.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 5 16 5 10 9 10 9 4 8 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes         Yes Yes        
Action No         Yes No        
High 20.45 20.40 20.75 21.50 22.88 22.32 22.07 20.89 24.85 27.38 27.75
Low 19.40 19.45 19.72 20.31 20.84 21.00 18.88 18.88 20.39 24.47 24.72
Close/Last 19.90 19.99 20.57 20.97 21.64 21.36 18.91 20.86 24.66 26.09 27.72