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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 31 38 39 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 15 15 21 24 26 26 20 18 19 23 21
Exceeded High 9 10 16 21 24 21 15 15 15 16 13
Scenario Percentage 60% 67% 76% 88% 92% 81% 75% 83% 79% 70% 62%
Avg Max Increase 11.09% 12.76% 9.53% 8.92% 10.26% 12.00% 21.89% 25.08% 15.61% 12.44% 9.60%
Max Increase 33.13% 45.66% 34.75% 20.76% 43.93% 44.18% 78.88% 81.32% 55.19% 42.67% 26.45%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 18 15 18 16 18 19 16 17 12 10
Avg Max Decline -1.80% -1.17% -1.77% -1.68% -1.87% -2.36% -3.10% -0.67% -3.31% -2.35% -2.05%
Max Decline -7.76% -3.82% -6.77% -9.35% -6.59% -8.59% -10.54% -3.34% -22.53% -10.43% -11.18%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 7 8 6 8 12 7 4 6 6 2
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action No     Yes Yes Yes No     Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 31 38 39 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 15 23 18 19 16 18 24 26 24 21 23
Penetrated Low 13 19 10 13 13 13 22 23 17 16 21
Scenario Percentage 87% 83% 56% 68% 81% 72% 92% 88% 71% 76% 91%
Avg Max Decline 4.36% 4.49% 7.67% 4.71% 5.62% 9.85% 8.50% 10.16% 7.15% 6.24% 11.95%
Max Decline 8.42% 22.44% 21.24% 15.33% 11.19% 16.33% 18.07% 27.81% 18.89% 11.47% 38.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 17 15 15 21 20 22 19 17 10 14
Avg Max Increase -2.38% -3.03% -2.26% -1.88% -3.07% -1.57% -1.83% -2.52% -3.27% -3.11% -1.90%
Max Increase -6.93% -12.20% -7.61% -4.38% -10.88% -5.06% -6.33% -13.44% -9.93% -15.11% -9.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase 10 13 7 7 18 4 11 6 10 6 3
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes         Yes Yes    
Action   Yes Yes         Yes No    
High 20.95 20.65 20.50 20.50 20.95 21.67 23.08 22.50 22.25 20.87 24.80
Low 20.20 20.15 19.63 19.60 19.92 20.61 21.12 21.25 19.20 19.21 20.40
Close/Last 20.65 20.20 20.00 20.15 20.88 21.22 21.77 21.67 19.24 20.85 24.71