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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 29 40 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 15 17 19 26 24 26 25 20 19 19 23
Exceeded High 10 12 14 19 20 21 21 15 16 12 9
Scenario Percentage 67% 71% 74% 73% 83% 81% 84% 75% 84% 63% 39%
Avg Max Increase 8.11% 8.14% 13.68% 10.27% 9.86% 11.38% 11.07% 21.44% 22.68% 14.31% 5.27%
Max Increase 18.48% 22.21% 48.88% 39.19% 27.07% 38.29% 43.95% 72.36% 81.17% 52.27% 12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 16 17 16 17 17 16 19 18 13 8
Avg Max Decline -0.61% -1.99% -1.28% -1.48% -2.02% -1.84% -1.98% -3.23% -0.94% -1.34% -0.84%
Max Decline -1.44% -8.22% -3.59% -6.71% -9.34% -6.90% -7.70% -9.75% -3.74% -6.00% -3.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline 3 8 7 7 6 9 7 7 5 2 2
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes No No   Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 29 40 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 14 22 24 18 20 18 18 23 25 25 21
Penetrated Low 11 16 20 11 14 14 14 20 22 17 12
Scenario Percentage 79% 73% 83% 61% 70% 78% 78% 87% 88% 68% 57%
Avg Max Decline 5.86% 6.03% 5.82% 7.53% 4.96% 6.70% 9.90% 9.15% 10.27% 6.19% 14.15%
Max Decline 20.00% 24.93% 29.75% 22.24% 15.51% 16.72% 17.69% 18.41% 29.75% 19.16% 72.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline 22 14 17 14 15 20 21 21 17 10 11
Avg Max Increase -4.01% -2.73% -2.85% -2.19% -1.72% -2.20% -2.29% -1.82% -2.67% -2.37% -2.15%
Max Increase -12.58% -8.41% -11.93% -8.43% -4.40% -6.40% -8.94% -6.02% -13.63% -9.20% -5.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase 17 7 12 6 7 14 6 10 7 4 3
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes           Yes  
Action     Yes No           Yes  
High 20.80 21.25 21.40 21.05 20.80 21.36 22.10 23.50 22.84 22.56 20.84
Low 19.05 20.50 20.52 19.92 19.95 20.15 21.04 21.45 21.58 19.29 19.25
Close/Last 20.80 21.15 20.70 20.32 20.70 21.20 21.63 22.04 22.07 19.33 20.82