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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 29 37 38 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Higher 12 21 18 16 24 24 24 23 18 17 18
Exceeded High 9 14 13 13 17 21 20 18 13 14 11
Scenario Percentage 75% 67% 72% 81% 71% 88% 83% 78% 72% 82% 61%
Avg Max Increase 9.07% 8.93% 10.69% 11.85% 10.71% 10.74% 11.78% 11.53% 24.15% 22.50% 10.39%
Max Increase 18.96% 19.05% 41.11% 52.91% 38.42% 32.20% 38.21% 44.01% 74.39% 59.87% 28.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase 23 17 18 16 15 16 15 15 19 14 8
Avg Max Decline -2.32% -0.95% -2.00% -1.70% -1.83% -2.22% -1.75% -2.21% -3.52% -0.79% -0.97%
Max Decline -8.77% -5.41% -8.55% -5.09% -6.83% -16.60% -7.63% -7.97% -8.97% -3.76% -6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 4 8 10 7 7 8 8 6 2 2
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes No    
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 29 37 38 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Lower 17 16 19 24 17 18 18 19 24 25 24
Penetrated Low 14 13 14 20 9 13 15 16 20 22 17
Scenario Percentage 82% 81% 74% 83% 53% 72% 83% 84% 83% 88% 71%
Avg Max Decline 7.40% 6.56% 6.76% 6.19% 9.08% 5.74% 7.62% 9.61% 9.77% 9.73% 10.75%
Max Decline 20.19% 18.53% 23.96% 29.01% 22.01% 15.88% 17.45% 19.28% 18.65% 24.20% 41.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 22 16 17 13 15 20 20 22 12 14
Avg Max Increase -1.98% -3.66% -3.13% -2.95% -1.87% -1.70% -2.23% -1.89% -2.02% -2.60% -3.57%
Max Increase -7.79% -14.59% -8.14% -11.96% -4.33% -4.44% -5.73% -5.96% -6.34% -13.98% -10.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase 5 14 8 12 5 6 14 8 10 6 -36
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes         Yes Yes
Action Yes     Yes Yes         Yes Yes
High 20.95 21.10 21.60 21.65 21.18 21.00 21.75 22.52 23.75 22.95 22.59
Low 19.85 19.29 20.90 20.76 19.96 19.94 20.25 21.27 21.59 21.54 19.32
Close/Last 19.86 21.10 21.50 20.90 20.49 20.90 21.40 21.90 22.13 21.97 19.37