MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	22	21	19	22	19	24	23	15	17	28
Exceeded High		19	18	15	14	17	16	18	17	10	13	19
Scenario Percentage		76%	82%	71%	74%	77%	84%	75%	74%	67%	76%	68%
Avg Max Increase		12.28%	16.81%	22.37%	11.95%	7.76%	10.00%	9.43%	11.68%	18.41%	12.73%	6.50%
Max Increase		39.42%	76.66%	69.44%	51.45%	28.43%	22.17%	18.98%	53.06%	79.61%	32.65%	23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	14	15	16	15	20	16	13	19	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.75%	-2.73%	-1.22%	-4.49%	-1.52%	-3.24%	-1.94%	-2.33%	-2.88%	-1.56%	-0.67%
Max Decline		-5.02%	-8.92%	-3.74%	-18.49%	-7.25%	-10.23%	-5.22%	-9.47%	-6.21%	-3.28%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	6	6	10	5	8	7	12	9	5	2
2018 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	23	23	26	23	26	21	22	30	28	17
Penetrated Low		13	22	20	17	18	23	17	18	27	16	10
Scenario Percentage		72%	96%	87%	65%	78%	88%	81%	82%	90%	57%	59%
Avg Max Decline		8.53%	7.43%	9.84%	8.61%	9.04%	8.24%	8.58%	7.63%	6.82%	8.35%	3.49%
Max Decline		12.59%	18.57%	25.30%	26.20%	42.77%	32.62%	19.01%	22.84%	30.93%	24.16%	5.40%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	22	18	16	17	15	18	17	16	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.71%	-2.44%	-2.41%	-2.35%	-3.19%	-1.80%	-4.42%	-3.33%	-3.39%	-2.38%	-1.88%
Max Increase		-5.21%	-5.96%	-12.50%	-9.09%	-13.21%	-7.87%	-17.82%	-9.66%	-13.99%	-6.23%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	12	7	8	7	4	9	11	11	6	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	35.55	33.23	34.12	34.12	35.80	35.81	36.42	35.49	35.80	34.27	34.10	33.31
Low	32.35	32.05	31.95	31.85	32.77	33.26	33.08	32.72	33.81	32.52	32.10	31.40
Close/Last	32.80	32.43	32.21	33.59	35.37	35.42	33.23	35.11	34.06	33.26	33.07	31.96