MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	32	41	42	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	18	19	20	19	23	21	22	21	15	22	24
Exceeded High	14	15	17	17	17	18	16	16	10	16	15
Scenario Percentage	78%	79%	85%	89%	74%	86%	73%	76%	67%	73%	63%
Avg Max Increase	12.18%	19.46%	21.69%	11.87%	10.22%	11.80%	9.46%	11.55%	21.98%	14.87%	7.42%
Max Increase	39.42%	76.66%	69.44%	51.45%	28.43%	26.42%	18.98%	53.06%	79.61%	43.40%	23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	18	15	18	20	20	15	16	21	13	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.98%	-3.25%	-1.23%	-3.30%	-1.51%	-2.57%	-1.27%	-2.59%	-1.69%	-1.38%	-0.51%
Max Decline	-6.63%	-8.92%	-4.31%	-18.49%	-7.25%	-10.23%	-4.45%	-10.53%	-6.21%	-3.28%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline	13	7	8	10	5	7	5	13	6	5	1
2005 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes
Action					Yes		No

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	32	41	42	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	14	22	21	24	22	24	23	24	30	23	21
Penetrated Low	8	20	17	17	18	22	18	18	25	14	11
Scenario Percentage	57%	91%	81%	71%	82%	92%	78%	75%	83%	61%	52%
Avg Max Decline	8.91%	7.01%	9.84%	6.07%	6.77%	7.36%	7.06%	6.68%	6.40%	8.41%	14.77%
Max Decline	12.59%	17.22%	25.30%	16.81%	13.44%	19.59%	19.01%	22.84%	30.93%	24.16%	57.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline	21	23	20	16	18	17	19	14	16	12	12
Avg Max Increase	-1.83%	-2.00%	-2.56%	-2.92%	-3.59%	-1.55%	-3.69%	-3.45%	-3.00%	-1.81%	-4.00%
Max Increase	-4.58%	-5.78%	-12.50%	-10.09%	-13.21%	-6.45%	-17.82%	-9.66%	-13.99%	-4.52%	-15.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	11	9	12	9	5	10	8	11	5	-60
2005 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	28.45	27.30	26.25	24.39	24.90	25.60	22.15	22.03	21.63	20.55
Low	25.95	24.20	23.76	20.52	20.65	20.66	20.10	20.16	19.89	19.98
Close/Last	26.88	25.20	24.34	20.68	24.87	20.79	21.64	20.90	20.79	20.04